Brewing tropical storm to target US Gulf Coast this week; Flood danger may expand over East

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Newly formed Tropical Depression 14 is expected to become a tropical storm and take aim at the Gulf Coast of the United States during the middle to latter part of the week.

The tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean, east of Belize, was officially designated as Tropical Depression 14 early Sunday morning.

The system may strengthen into a tropical storm later Sunday as it tracks northward offshore of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name Michael.

The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to help the storm strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane prior to landfall.



Regardless of its strength and status, downpours and a risk for flooding will accompany the storm along its track, even beyond an expected landfall in the southeastern U.S.

Heavy rain threat in the northwestern Caribbean as storm brews

"The combination of the depression and moisture from the Pacific Ocean will lead to numerous downpours streaming over Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba into Monday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.

Localized downpours may also target the rest of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola over the weekend, including in Haiti where recovery efforts from a deadly earthquake are ongoing.

Flash flooding and mudslides will threaten lives and property across parts of the region. Seas can also turn rough as the system organizes and strengthens.

Tropical storm to target US Gulf Coast this week

"Climatologically speaking, odds favor that a storm emerging from the northwestern Caribbean will track toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico rather than the Texas coastline this time of year," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

The latest indications support a track away from the Texas coastline, but residents and others with interests along the central or northeastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of the storm.

Seas will build across the Gulf of Mexico early this week as the storm churns northward, creating dangers for swimmers and boaters well in advance of the storm.

The largest swells and greatest hazards can be anticipated over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, but seas can still turn rough along the Texas coastline and at southeastern U.S. Atlantic beaches by midweek.

Operators of the oil platforms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will have to monitor the situation to ensure the safety of their workers.

Rain and gusty winds are expected to ramp up across the central and/or northeastern Gulf Coast around midweek. A more eastward track can also spread downpours across the Florida Peninsula early in the week.



The exact track of the storm will determine whether the heaviest rain and zone of damaging winds focus more toward Alabama or the eastern Florida Panhandle around Wednesday into Thursday.

There is also a risk of storm surge flooding and isolated tornadoes near and east of where the storm makes landfall.

Residents from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle are urged to use this weekend to review preparation tips and stock up on key essentials, such as non-perishable food, bottled water and medicines.

Those living in communities at risk for storm surge flooding should have a plan in place if evacuation orders are given.

Flood risk may expand across southern US, possibly into eastern US

After landfall, the storm alone can spread flooding rain across a part of the South later in the week.

Areas hit hard by Florence may face disruptions to ongoing cleanup efforts or renewed flooding depending on the track of the storm.

The risk for flooding may become more severe and life-threatening if the storm stalls or moves very slowly over the Deep South—one scenario that AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring.

The flood risk, however, may expand well away from the storm’s track as another system comes into play.

This system can guide the tropical feature or at least its moisture northward, which may lead to another round of heavy rain across parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England late this week.

"Many portions of the eastern U.S. are on track for a top-10 wettest year on record, and some are coming off their wettest summer on record," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

"Unusually high river and small stream levels, combined with soggy ground in parts of the East, are a perfect recipe for renewed flooding this autumn should any tropical or moisture-rich, non-tropical storm to come calling," he said.

Tropical Storm Michael Strengthening in Northwestern Caribbean Sea, Could Threaten Northeastern Gulf Coast as a Hurricane Midweek

By weather.com meteorologists

At a Glance

Tropical Storm Michael is strengthening in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.Michael could threaten the northeastern Gulf Coast as a hurricane in the week ahead.Storm surge, damaging winds and heavy rain are likely impacts along the northeastern Gulf Coast by midweek.Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.Hurricane watches will likely be posted along the northeastern Gulf Coast of the U.S. on Monday.Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive on the northeastern Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Michael is strengthening in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and could threaten the northeastern Gulf Coast as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by midweek with dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Michael is currently centered about 105 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, moving slowly toward the north.

Tropical storm warnings have been posted for western Cuba and Mexico's northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun. Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are expected to first reach the tropical storm warning area by early Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast of the United States on Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches are forecast over western Cuba, with 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.

These downpours could contribute to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas of mountainous terrain.

Michael's outer rainbands are also expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across the Florida Keys through Tuesday.

(LATEST NEWS: State of Emergency Declared as Florida Prepares for Michael)
Forecast: U.S. Gulf Coast Threat Midweek

Forecast guidance is unanimous that Michael will be drawn northward through the Gulf of Mexico and pose a threat to the northeastern Gulf Coast by midweek.

Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for intensification in the Gulf of Mexico than they are right now, and sea-surface temperatures are above average along Michael's path as well. Both of these factors should assist in a gradual strengthening of Michael into a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday.

It's too early to determine the exact magnitude of the impacts from this system, but here's a general overview of what we know right now.

- Timing: Landfall is most likely to occur somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend of Florida Wednesday into Wednesday night. Depending on how quickly or slowly this system moves northward, the center of Michael could approach the Florida Gulf coast as soon as Tuesday night or as late as Thursday morning. After landfall, this system will then move farther inland across the southeastern U.S. into late-week.
- Intensity: The National Hurricane Center is forecasting this system to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane when it makes landfall. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain, and Michael could be weaker or stronger than that at landfall.
- Wind: Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are most likely to arrive on the northeastern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, particularly from southern Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Winds of that strength could arrive as soon as Tuesday evening, however, depending on how fast Michael moves. Hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) are possible in a smaller area near where the center moves inland. Tree damage and power outages are possible along the path of Michael near and inland from the northeastern Gulf Coast.

- Storm Surge: Dangerous storm surge flooding could occur along the immediate coastline near and east of where the center makes landfall. The amount of storm surge inundation will depend on how strong this system becomes and where it makes landfall. Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, particularly Apalachee Bay south of Tallahassee.
- Rainfall: Heavy rain is likely to spread inland from the northeastern and central Gulf Coast midweek to other parts of the southeastern U.S. into late-week. Some of this heavy rain could affect parts of the Carolinas that were devastated by flooding from Hurricane Florence. That said, this system is unlikely to stall like Florence did and will, therefore, not bring extreme rainfall amounts.

Interests along the northeastern and central Gulf Coast that are in the path of this system should begin making preparations.

Florida Panhandle Bracing for Category 4 Hit from Michael



Just hours away from an expected Wednesday afternoon landfall, Hurricane Michael became ever stronger and more organized on Tuesday night over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Michael’s high winds, torrential rain, and very large storm surge were pushing briskly toward the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region just to the east, the areas in line to experience the worst impacts. Update (2 am EDT Wednesday): Michael has been upgraded to Category 4 strength as of 2 am EDT, with top sustained winds of 130 mph. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall.

Satellite images of Michael’s evolution on Tuesday night were, in a word, jaw-dropping. A massive blister of thunderstorms (convection) erupted and wrapped around the storm’s eye, which has taken taking a surprisingly long time to solidify. A layer of dry air several miles above the surface being pulled into Michael from the west may have been one of the factors that kept Michael from sustaining a classic, fully closed eyewall (see embedded tweet below). A closed eyewall is normally a prerequisite for a hurricane to intensify robustly, but somehow Michael managed to reach Category 3 status without one.

While the satellite structure of #Michael continues to look ever more impressive, recon is still finding that the eyewall is not closed in the SW quad. This indicates convection is still weakening before it reaches the upshear flank despite a seemingly textbook IR presentation. pic.twitter.com/R6wZLfd80q
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) October 10, 2018

Based purely on the Dvorak method, which uses cloud-top temperatures from satellites to estimate hurricane strength, Michael was a Category 4 storm by Tuesday evening. Michael’s central pressure dropped from 965 mb at 1 pm EDT to 947 mb at 11 pm, another sign of robust strengthening. However, it can take a few hours for a hurricane’s winds to fully respond to changes in the inner core’s structure and pressure. A hurricane-hunter mission found flight-level winds of 130 knots (150 mph) and radiometer-estimated surface winds of 110 knots (127 mph) just after 8 pm EDT. In its 11 pm EDT advisory, the National Hurricane Center pegged Michael's top sustained winds at 125 mph, just shy of Category 4 status. Assuming that Michael maintains or improves its structure overnight, these winds are likely to increase in response, and NHC is now predicting that Michael will approach the coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday morning.

If Michael reaches the coast with top winds of at least 130 mph (minimal Category 4 strength), it will be the strongest hurricane landfall ever recorded in the Florida Panhandle, as well as along most of Florida's Gulf Coast—all the way from the Alabama border to Punta Gorda—in records going back to 1851.

This isn’t going to be like past western FL panhandle/AL majors like Dennis, Ivan, Opal, Eloise. And it’s not like Hermine, Kate farther east but weaker. #Michael will make new history for central Panhandle, Big Bend. Some of you could get water and wind worse than ever before. pic.twitter.com/5b4AV1c7QR
— Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb) October 10, 2018

Michael has been adhering closely to the general course predicted by our top track models. With steering currents solidly in place, there is no reason to expect Michael to greatly depart from a northward track that will start to bend to the north-northeast around or just before landfall. Model guidance is clustered tightly near the center of the NHC forecast cone. Landfall is most likely between Pensacola and Apalachicola early Wednesday afternoon. Note that the hurricane warning for Michael includes the entire Florida coast from the Alabama border to Suwanee River, in part because of the small remaining track uncertainty but also because Michael’s wind and surge impacts will extend well east of its center.
Models trending stronger with Michael

The 18Z Tuesday run of our top intensity model from 2017, the HWRF model, predicted that Michael would peak as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds at 8 am EDT Wednesday, then weaken to a high-end Category 3 with 125 mph winds at landfall, early Wednesday afternoon. The 18Z Tuesday run of the HMON model predicted Michael would peak as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds at 8 am Wednesday, then weaken by landfall to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. The latest 0Z Wednesday runs of our other two top intensity models, DSHIPS and LGEM, predicted that Michael would make landfall as a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 125 – 130 mph winds. Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record).


Our two most reliable rapid intensity forecasting models, SHIPS and DTOPS, predicted with their 0Z Wednesday forecasts that Michael had a 20% and 0% chance, respectively, of becoming a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds before landfall. SHIPS is the model NHC uses operationally to forecast rapid intensification, and DTOPS is an experimental model that NHC started evaluating last year.
High storm surge risk on east-facing locations on Apalachee Bay

One of the most at-risk locations for a high storm surge is Apalachicola, FL. Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham’s U-SURGE project has a web page dedicated to the storm surge history there. In an email, Dr. Needham explained that the page allows us to compare Michael's surge with high water marks from 40 other hurricanes and tropical storms. When sea level rise is removed, an Unnamed Hurricane (1903) and Hurricane Elena (1985) both produced water levels 10 feet above the annual mean sea level. Michael's storm surge will be comparable, or possibly exceed these levels, depending on the track.

Apalachee Bay, where NHC is predicting the highest storm surge from Michael—up to 13 feet—generates storm surge very efficiently because of its concave shape and shallow bathymetry. East-facing shores along Apalachee Bay in places like Apalachicola and Carribelle are generally more vulnerable than west-facing shores closer to where Michael is expected to make landfall, like Mexico Beach, because east-facing shores observe prolonged onshore winds as the hurricane approaches from the south.

West-facing coastlines, however, observe a prolonged offshore wind, followed by an onshore wind that suddenly strikes after the center passes. The rapid change of wind direction does not enable storm surge to build up as efficiently. This explains why east-facing Shell Beach, in eastern Louisiana near New Orleans, observed a higher storm surge (7.51’) than Morgan City (Amerada Pass) in central Louisiana (7.06’), from Texas-landfalling Hurricane Ike. Morgan City was approximately 85 miles closer to Ike's landfall than Shell Beach, but the west-facing shore limited Ike's storm surge potential in that small area.



Michael’s track beyond the Gulf Coast

Landfall will be only the start of Michael’s expected multi-state rampage. As it accelerates to the northeast, Michael will bring tropical-storm-force winds further inland than usual for a landfalling hurricane. These will be capable of downing trees and power lines in deadly fashion across a vast swath of southern Georgia into South Carolina and even North Carolina. Power outages could affect many hundreds of thousands of people, and the huge, simultaneous toll on the power grid indicates that some of those outages will not be repaired for days.

Intensity models agree in projecting Michael to remain a tropical storm all the way to the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, where it will pop back offshore late Thursday or early Friday. Rains of 4” – 8” (locally higher) along and near Michael’s path may trigger flash floods, especially where soil is saturated in the wake of Hurricane Florence and other rains of recent weeks. Rivers have receded well below flood stage, so widespread river flooding is not expected. Michael may lash the NC/VA coasts with a parting shot of high wind on Friday as it reintensifies offshore, en route to becoming a powerful post-tropical storm over the open Atlantic.

Dr. Jeff Masters co-wrote this post.

It is not out of the realm of possibilities for #Michael to make landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane. A rare thing for the month of October! In fact, it's only happened 4 times on record! Please take this storm seriously! pic.twitter.com/bvfaVsv4Kr
— Alex Wallace (@TWCAlexWallace) October 10, 2018

10 Mind-Blowing Facts About Hurricane Michael – The 3rd Most Powerful Hurricane Ever To Make Landfall In The U.S.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this

By Michael Snyder | End Of The American Dream Thursday, October 11, 2018

Hurricane Michael was supposed to be a relatively minor storm as hurricanes go, but it just kept getting stronger and stronger as it approached the Florida panhandle.

And when it finally did make landfall, it was an absolutely monstrous storm with sustained maximum winds of 155 miles per hour. If those winds had reached 157 miles per hour, it would have been a Category 5 storm. It truly was a “lawnmower from the sky” that shredded just about everything it encountered as it slammed into a part of the country that was very ill-prepared for a storm of this magnitude. Hundreds of thousands of people are already without power, and as you will see below, one major outlet is warning that “most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months”.

It would be difficult to overstate the devastation that this storm has caused. Brock Long, the head of FEMA, is calling Michael “a hurricane of the worst kind”…

Even those jaded by hurricanes have never seen anything like this.

For the first time, a Category 4 hurricane slammed into the Florida Panhandle. And it’s bringing an onslaught of deadly hazards.

“Unfortunately, this is a hurricane of the worst kind,” said Brock Long, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

I have driven through the Florida panhandle, and especially in some of the more rural areas it is a glimpse into a way of life that most of the nation has long forgotten.

But it is also a region that is full of very old houses and buildings, and those structures were never designed for a storm like this. In Panama City, some residents gathered at a local hotel to ride out the storm, but Hurricane Michael nearly reduced it to rubble…

People whimpered and prayed, babies cried, children called for their mothers and all the while, bit by bit, the hotel that was saving them from Hurricane Michael’s howling was falling apart, brick by brick and roofing tile by roofing tile.

The hurricane’s eyewall came through Panama City shortly after noon Wednesday, shearing trees in half, twisting roofs from their supports and tossing truck trailers and RVs like toys.

Hurricane Michael will soon be a memory, but the damage caused by this storm will be felt in the Florida panhandle for a very long time to come.

According to the Weather Underground, much of the region “will be uninhabitable for weeks or months”…

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Please keep the people of the Florida panhandle in your prayers, because recovery is going to take an extended period of time. The following are 10 mind-blowing facts about Hurricane Michael that show just how powerful this storm really was…

-Hurricane Michael made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour.

-Michael’s winds were just 2 miles per hour short of making it a Category 5 hurricane.

-Michael is the strongest hurricane to ever hit the Florida panhandle.

-Overall, Michael is the third strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States. The only two more powerful storms were the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969.

-The fact that a total of 30 Waffle Houses closed down for the storm made headlines all over the nation.

-Hurricane Michael was actually a more powerful storm than Hurricane Katrinawhen it made landfall.

-Hundreds of thousands of people have already lost power as a result of this storm.

-It is being projected that more than a million homes may ultimately lose power before it is all said and done.

-Never before had a Category 4 hurricane made landfall in the Florida panhandle.

-Many have pointed out that an “image of a skull” seems to have appeared at the center of Hurricane Michael as it approached the Florida coastline…

Is image of skull showing up at the center of Hurricane Michael? https://t.co/3Ne8Np2ZtG pic.twitter.com/LOf0IAPFlE

— WUSA9 (@wusa9) October 10, 2018

This is yet another example that shows how dramatically our planet is changing.

Not too long ago, Hurricane Florence slammed into the Carolinas causing a massive amount of damage. Now another major storm has struck our nation, and hurricane season is definitely not over yet.

But it isn’t just the U.S. that is getting hammered. Hurricanes and typhoons have been raging all over the globe, and it looks like this could be a record year for global storm damage.

As I have repeatedly warned, Earth changes appear to be accelerating, and that has very alarming implications for the future of every man, woman and child on this planet.



Photos, Video: Hurricane Michael C...t Florida in ruins following major storm

[img]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2018/1...ubble_after_hurric-a-2_1539264368200.jpg[/img]

I saw a video of Tyndall AFB after the storm that was absolutely scary. It's going to take quite a while to rebuild that base. It's a good thing they flew all the F-22's out of there.

Onward and upward,
airforce

7 confirmed dead so far.

285 people chose to stay in Mexico city which was almost wiped off the map. Only 20 have been found as of tonight.

1.3 million across the Southeast are without power.

More flooding in NC and Virginia plus numerous tornadoes. We even had flooding up in the mountains where I live.

Since 2017 we've had Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence and Michael causing massive amounts of damage across the South.

Rescuers scour debris for dead after Florida hurricane

Rod Nickel


MEXICO BEACH, Fla. (Reuters) - Rescue crews worked their way through fallen trees and heaps of rubble on Friday in the Florida Panhandle towns hit the hardest by Hurricane Michael, looking for people trapped or killed by a storm blamed for at least 12 deaths.

The concern was for people who ignored evacuation orders ahead of the storm - which grew with surprising speed from a tropical storm into an extremely powerful hurricane in less than two days - and who stayed put in communities that were demolished by Michael’s assault on Wednesday.

“I think you’re going to see it climb,” Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said of the death count at a news conference. “We still haven’t gotten into some of the hardest-hit areas.”

FEMA crews used heavy equipment, sniffer dogs, drone aircraft and global positioning satellites in their search.

So far, counties along the affected northwest Florida coast have reported no deaths related to the storm.

Michael charged ashore near the small Florida Panhandle town of Mexico Beach as one of the most powerful storms in U.S. history, with winds of up to 155 miles per hour (250 km per hour). It pushed a wall of seawater inland, causing widespread flooding.

Many houses in Mexico Beach were reduced to naked concrete foundations or piles of rubble. The storm, a Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, tore apart entire neighborhoods in the Panhandle.

Phone service to the most damaged areas was down, leaving survivors no way to contact worried relatives, so a CNN reporter on the air read off several names of residents he had spoken with, to let concerned parties know they were safe.

“It was rough,” Mary Grasberger 50, said of her ordeal after riding out the storm in a motel in Panacea, a community near the Gulf of Mexico coast. “We were surrounded by water and we could see road signs floating by. It was crazy. Two of the light poles were knocked down by the winds.

“Thank God the rooms didn’t flood.”

Florida Senator Bill Nelson went to Panama City, up the coast from Mexico Beach, and was stunned by what he saw.

“Pine forests were no longer - they were all sticks that were broken in two,” Nelson, a Democrat, told Fox News. “Mexico Beach, there’s no barrier island out there to protect it so it got the full force of the Category 4 wind and that wall of water.”
DEATHS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST

Although weaker as it pushed over the southeastern United States, the storm carried high winds and delivered drenching rains to Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. It killed at least 12 people in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, officials said.

In Virginia, the remnants of the hurricane swept away four people in floodwaters. A firefighter also was killed when hit by a truck as he was trying to help an accident victim, the Washington Post reported.

About 1.5 million homes and businesses were without power from Florida to Virginia early on Friday, according to utility companies.

It could be weeks before power is restored to the most damaged parts of Florida.

Long urged communities such as Mexico Beach, where many homes were obliterated by 12 to 14 feet (3.7 to 4.3 meters) of storm surge, to rebuild to withstand future storms.

“It’s OK if you want to live on the coast or on top of a mountain that sees wildfires or whatever but you have to build to a higher standard,” he said. “If we’re going to rebuild, do it right.”

Michael kills at least 17, cuts power to over 1.5 million as it carves path of destruction from Florida to Virginia

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

By Katy Galimberti, AccuWeather staff writer
October 13, 2018,


Days after crashing into the Florida Panhandle as the third-most intense landfalling hurricane in United States history, Michael drifted out to sea Friday morning as a post-tropical cyclone.

The potent storm caused deadly and damaging impacts throughout its lifespan from a near Category 5 hurricane along the Florida coast to a heavy rain-producing tropical storm that caused flooding issues in Virginia and the Carolinas.

The storm has claimed at least 17 lives across Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. Over 1.5 million people remained without power as of Friday morning.

In a Friday morning press conference, Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said he expects the death toll to increase over the next several days.

Florida

President Trump has declared a major disaster for Florida and ordered federal aid to supplement state and local recovery.

Michael totally devastated several coastal communities along the Florida coastline including Mexico Beach, located near where Michael made landfall. The storm arrived with winds of 155 mph, just 2 mph shy of Category 5 status.

A combination of extreme winds and an inundating storm surge wiped many homes completely off their foundations, leaving neighborhoods desolate.

Another angle of #MexicoBeach Utter devastation. Winds, storm surge...@breakingweather @bclemms @accuweather pic.twitter.com/xgf4hDoxLb
— Jonathan Petramala (@jpetramala) October 11, 2018


Some of the hardest-hit counties are on Florida’s northwestern Gulf Coast including Bay, Franklin, Gulf, Taylor and Wakulla.

Four fatalities were reported in Gadsen County, near Tallahassee, the Gadsen County Sheriff’s Office said.

Due to many roadways being left either washed out or covered in debris and power lines, officials urged residents to remain in their homes or avoid returning to their neighborhood if they evacuated as they continued search and rescue operations.

A wind gust of 129 mph was reported at Tyndall Air Force Base, which suffered extensive damage from the storm.

Look at all of the boats that washed up on this beach near #TyndallAFB after the surge recessed back into the Gulf. Unreal. @accuweather @bclemms @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/5Nt6xpm7F3
— Jonathan Petramala (@jpetramala) October 11, 2018


Col. Brian S. Laidlaw, Commander 325th Fighter Wing, said the "base took a beating" and there is a "need to restore basic utilities, clear our roads of trees and power lines, and assess the structural integrity of our buildings."

“Every building has severe damage. Many buildings are a complete loss,” Air Force officials at the base said in a statement.

Georgia

Michael’s wrath extended inland as it remained at major hurricane strength into southwestern Georgia.

Michael also unleashed several tornadoes, including one that damaged half a dozen homes in central Georgia's Crawford County.

One fatality was reported in the state. An 11-year-old girl in Georgia was killed after Michael’s winds picked up a carport and dropped it through the roof of her grandparents’ home, the Associated Press reported.

More than 160,000 remained without power in the state as of Friday morning.

President Trump also declared a major disaster for Georgia.

North Carolina

While North Carolina continued their recovery following Florence’s damage nearly a month ago, Michael tore across the state on its journey through the Southeast.

Michael maintained tropical storm strength as it tracked over the Tarheel State with strong winds and heavy rain. The intense winds knocked down scores of trees and cut power to thousands.

"For North Carolina, Michael isn't as bad as Florence, but it adds unwelcome insult to injury, so we must be on alert," Gov. Roy Cooper said.

Winds up to 50 mph were reported in some areas.

One person was killed outside of Charlotte when a tree crashed onto a car, fatally striking the driver.

Dozens of roads were closed throughout the state as high water made them impassible.

Michael pounded the state on Thursday afternoon before moving north into Virginia later Thursday.

Virginia

Still at tropical storm strength, Michael left at least five dead in Virginia.

Four people were swept away by high water on roadways. Officials urged everyone to avoid any type of flooded road on Friday morning. Thousands of roads throughout the state were closed due to flooding.

One firefighter was killed in a vehicle crash while responding to the storm.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency to respond to the storm’s impacts.

Roads were also covered in debris as the strong winds toppled trees and power lines. Strong winds left more than half a million without power into Friday morning.

Michael spawned five suspected tornadoes across the state as well, adding to the damage.

Nearly Two-Dozen F-22 Stealth Fighters Unaccounted For After Hurricane Michael

Potentially billions lost in Tyndall Air Force Base

Image Credits: Joe Raedle / Staff / Getty.
By Zero Hedge Saturday, October 13, 2018



After Hurricane Michael rendered Tyndall Air Force Base a “complete loss” from “widespread, catastrophic damage” – questions remain over nearly two-dozen F-22 Stealth Fighters which are unaccounted for.

According to the New York Times, Tyndall is home to 55 stealth fighters, “which cost a dizzying $339 million each.” Before Michael hit, the Air Force evacuated at least 33 of the planes to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, however, they would not comment on the status of the remaining 22 fighters.

“Air Force officials have not disclosed the whereabouts of the remaining 22 planes, other than to say that a number of aircraft were left at the base because of maintenance or safety reasons.

An Air Force spokeswoman, Maj. Malinda Singleton, would not confirm that any of the aircraft left behind were F-22s.

But photos and video from the wreckage of the base showed the distinctive contours of the F-22’s squared tail fins and angled vertical stabilizers amid a jumble of rubble in the base’s largest building, Hangar 5. Another photo shows the distinctive jet in a smaller hangar that had its doors and a wall ripped off by wind.

All of the hangars at the base were damaged, Major Singleton said Friday. ‘We anticipate the aircraft parked inside may be damaged as well,’ she said, ‘but we won’t know the extent until our crews can safely enter those hangars and make an assessment..’” – NYT

F-22s are notoriously finicky and, as the Times puts it “not always flight-worthy.” The Air Force reported earlier this year that just 49% of F-22s were mission ready at any given time – the lowest rate of any fighter in the Air Force. The total value of the unaccounted-for fighters is arouind $7.5 billion.

The eye of Hurricane Michael traveled directly over Tyndall, peeling back stormproof roofs like tin cans and flipping over an F-15 fighter jet display at the base entrance.

“When it was over, the base lay in ruins, amid what the Air Force called ‘widespread catastrophic damage.’ There were no reported injuries, in part because nearly all personnel had been ordered to leave in advance of the Category 4 hurricane’s landfall. Commanders still sifting through mounds of wreckage Thursday could not say when evacuation orders would be lifted.” – NYT

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/kbMHqBnnBL4

So one F-22 airframe has been spotted in a roofless hangar at Tyndall. Check out the upper left portion of this photo. No idea if this is flying airframe or a ground trainer or what, but it doesn't look good. More on Tyndall AFB's sad state here: https://t.co/JikiO65eny pic.twitter.com/GlvQ6hnJP7

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 12, 2018

The last Air Force Base to suffer catastrophic damage was in 1992, when Category 5 Hurricane Andrew slammed into Homestead Air Force Base just south of Miami with winds estimated at 150 m.p.h. Two years later it was reopened as a smaller, Air Force Reserve base.

“Tyndall, where about 3,600 airmen are stationed, sits on 29,000 acres that include undeveloped woods and beaches, as well as stores, restaurants, schools, a bowling alley and quiet, tree-lined streets with hundreds of homes for both active-duty and retired military. Video footage captured the ruin there, too: The high-powered storm skinned roofs, shattered windows, and tossed cars and trailers like toys, transforming the normally pristine base into a trash heap. Multistory barracks buildings stood open to the sky.” – NYT

“Tyndall residents and evacuated personnel should remain at their safe location,” said Col. Brian Laidlaw on Thursday. “We are actively developing plans to reunite families and plan to provide safe passage back to base housing.”

‘We Need Answers’: Hurricane Michael Leaves Florida Residents Desperate for Aid

[img]https://static01.nyt.com/images/201...a380b-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp[/img]

By Richard Fausset, Audra D. S. Burch and Alan Blinder

Oct. 12, 2018

PANAMA CITY, Fla. — It was two days after Hurricane Michael, and Eddie Foster was pushing his mother in a wheelchair down a thoroughly smashed street, his face creased with a concentrated dose of the frustration and fear that has afflicted much of the Florida Panhandle since the brutal storm turned its coast to rubble.

He was in a working-class neighborhood called Millville, where many residents said they were becoming desperate for even basic necessities. Mr. Foster, 60, and his 99-year-old mother had no car, no electricity. The food had spoiled in his refrigerator. The storm had ripped off large sections of his roof. He had no working plumbing to flush with. No water to drink. And as of Friday afternoon, he had seen no sign of government help.

“What can I do?” he said. “I’m not angry. I just want some help.”

This was the problem that government officials were racing to solve on Friday, as desperation grew in and around Panama City under a burning sun. Long lines formed for gas and food, and across the battered coastline, those who were poor, trapped and isolated sent out pleas for help.

It would take time to reach everyone. Yet the Panama City area, one of those hit hardest by Hurricane Michael, grew into a whirring hive of activity on Friday, as box trucks, military personnel, and rescue and aid workers flowed in from surrounding counties and states, struggling to fix communications and electrical systems that officials said were almost totally demolished.

The death toll from the Category 4 storm rose to 16, stretching as far north as Virginia, where five people died, and it was expected to climb higher as search-and-rescue crews fanned out through rubble that in some cases spanned entire blocks. The toll also included the potential of millions of dollars in damage to aircraft, which were left behind during the storm at Tyndall Air Force Base.

For those waiting for relief supplies or the ability to return to their homes, Brock Long, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, counseled patience. “Bottom line, it was one of the most powerful storms the country has seen since 1851,” he said. “It’s going to be a long time before they can get back.”

In Panama City, people pitched in when they could. Some even opened stores that lacked electricity: A Sonny’s barbecue restaurant fired up its smokers in the parking lot, feeding many who gathered in the late morning in a line that was at least 100 grateful residents long.

But in a city of unusable toilets and iffy cellular service — where nearly every street seemed like a set from a disaster movie — tensions were occasionally high as people waited for their first hot meal since Tuesday night. Before noon, a shouting match broke out between two men waiting for their barbecue plates. “Stop it!” a server admonished them at the top of his lungs. “Now we’re all being kind — got it?”

But the line was also full of hugs and tearful reunions, and across the broken region, residents exhibited selflessness and sweat as they began the long slog of putting it all back together. Crews had been able to clear some of the power lines and fallen trees from the main roads of Panama City, but many other areas were still choked with a riot of debris and limbs. Search-and-rescue teams continued to check neighborhoods in coastal Bay County, and Mark Bowen, the county’s emergency services chief, said that officials had estimates of the dead, but would not release them until the work was done.

“We have missing people, O.K.?” he said. “Are they missing because their loved ones can’t contact them, or are they missing because they perished in the storm? We just don’t know that.”

Shellshocked residents continued to stream from their homes, mostly focused on the first steps of rebuilding — finding help, from government assistance to shelters. But for some, the search proved frustrating: Solid answers were scarce, particularly in remote parts of the Panhandle. Some turned to word of mouth, and that was equally unreliable.

“I just keep looking for steeples and long lines, but I haven’t found much so far,” said Lynette Cordeno, 54, a retired Army sergeant who hoped to find a meal service somewhere. “We are walking around with no internet, no cell service, no way to even ask for help.”

Ms. Cordeno had gathered with others outside the Mr. Mart convenience store in nearby Callaway, one of many stores big and small that were rumored to be opening Friday. Some came barefoot and some in storm-battered cars. They came for room-temperature water and beer, charcoal and candy — and critical information.

“This is the working-class part of town. We didn’t have much before and now we have even less,” said Kevin Deeth, who lives four blocks away in a trailer missing jagged chunks of roof. “Now we need answers so we can try to start over.”

At his home, heaps of clothing and toys, now a sodden mess, are everywhere. Parts of the walls disintegrated, coating the living room like a first snow. Mr. Deeth saved some family photos and his children’s framed school awards, but not much else.

For now, Mr. Deeth, his wife and four school-age children are staying with a friend. He said Friday was his son’s 13th birthday, and then he began to cry.

“Overwhelmed. I guess that is what you would call it,” he said. “I have no idea what to do,” he said. “I am lost.”

The story and the sentiment were common, and they were not likely to abate soon. Mr. Bowen, the emergency services chief, warned on Friday that the area was in for a bout of “long-term uncomfortable, so people kind of need to get into that mind-set.”

Emergency planning experts said the government had not necessarily fallen short in its response so far.

“This is what disasters look like,” said W. Craig Fugate, a former FEMA chief. “Sit tight, help’s coming, but it’s not going to be there 12 hours after the storm passes.”

Likewise, those knowledgeable about disaster planning dismissed the idea that the rapid intensification of the storm had caught emergency responders off guard. Storm preparations, they said, are mostly driven by the population of a threatened region, not the precise dimensions of a storm.

“Once you get to a certain point in this part of the coast, it’s just going to be bad,” Mr. Fugate said.

Appearing Friday afternoon in Marianna, an inland community, Gov. Rick Scott of Florida said that state officials were “constantly reaching out to see what we can do to be helpful.”

“We have put out fuel, water, food in all of the impacted areas,” the governor said. “Where we can get there by truck, we’re getting there by truck.”

Officials in Panama City insisted throughout the day that crucial short-term help would soon arrive, even though the logistics, given the blocked roads and failed communications systems, were daunting. By afternoon, they had released a list of nine Bay County feeding sites.

Some local officials were worried about the possibility of social unrest in the areas where the poorest residents had not stocked up with multiple days’ worth of supplies. A short drive from Mr. Foster’s home, looting had been seen Thursday at a half-wrecked dollar store, and while some people came for things they wanted, most had come for things they needed — drinks and food.

On Friday, in a sign of the change that could soon roll out across the city, the store was being guarded by military personnel in a pair of Humvees.

Officials said that the Red Cross and religious volunteers were preparing ambitious feeding programs. The Florida National Guard was moving through neighborhoods with food and water. Soon, officials said, the region would be dotted with canteens and “pods” to allow people to drive up for food and water.

In the meantime, with cell service and internet hovering between spotty and nonexistent, residents navigated the ruined landscape with what scraps of information they could. Charlotte Jordan, 68, said that she heard about the free barbecue from her daughter, who called her from Tampa.

Elsewhere in line, Tracey Simmons, 42, was angrier. “They’re doing us like they did New Orleans,” she said. Ms. Simmons, an educator, said she was worried that poorer residents would eventually be moved out, much as they were after Hurricane Katrina. For the time being, she was frustrated by the complicated game of survival that was playing out.

“We know that people are coming,” she said of relief crews, “but where are they?”

Radio personalities played an important role in filling the gap — for those who had radios. One station broadcast a sort of improvised community bulletin board, reading out listeners’ news of store openings, offers of help, people in trouble, and people exasperated:

“Wayne’s Grocery has ice.”

“In the city of Fountain, Fla., can someone get water and formula to a baby?”

“My grandmother needs her meds and she needs her road cleared.”

“We should sue the cellphone companies.”

“You have to be patient, folks,” the host, Shane Collins, advised at one point. “We have been through a major disaster and it takes time.”

It came as a relief to many when a Sam’s Club opened Friday morning, under the watchful eye of National Guard troops. But like so much here, it was also a pain: On one side of the massive building, a two-hour line of sweaty shoppers pushing empty carts snaked through the parking lot. The shoppers were allowed in about 10 at a time, and had few fresh goods to choose from. Most walked out with cases of bottled water, snack food, and the occasional generator.

On the other side, the line for gas was even longer.

“I’m angry,” said Michael Chism, 30, on his third hour of waiting to fill up. “But there ain’t nothing I can do about it.”

10% of the F-22 fleet was damaged or destroyed by Michael. Ouch.

Onward and upward,
airforce

The Air Force is saying the earlier reports of damaged and destroyed F-22's may have been overstated. I sure hope so.

Onward and upward,
airforce

Civil society and voluntary action saved lives in Hurricane Michael.



Onward and upward,
airforce

Here’s where Hurricane Michael damage and recovery stand more than a week later

Nation Oct 19, 2018 3:08 PM EDT

It’s been nine days since Hurricane Michael, one of the most powerful storms to hit the U.S. in nearly 50 years, made landfall. Most of the storm’s damage was sustained by coastal towns of the Florida Panhandle, where 155 mph winds and a storm surge knocked out power lines and left thousands without access to food and water.

In Florida’s hardest-hit Bay County area, Mexico Beach residents were allowed to return home for the first time on Wednesday to survey the scope of the storm’s damage.

Here’s where the numbers stand today:

The death toll rose to at least 30 people across the U.S. Southeast. Twenty of those deaths were confirmed in Florida, six were reported in Virginia, one in Georgia and three in North Carolina, the Associated Press reported.

More than 124,000 customers in Florida and Georgia are still without power. The number has dropped from more than 1 million across the Southeast at its peak. Some in Florida’s hurricane-ravaged areas may not have power restored for another week or two, Reuters reports.

Cellphone service is being restored, but remains spotty in some areas. Earlier this week, Florida Gov. Rick Scott called Verizon out for the pace of restoration. But on Wednesday, service finally resumed for Panama City residents and the company announced it would be giving three months’ free service to customers in Bay and Gulf counties.

About 2.9 million meals and more than 3.4 million liters of water have been delivered to Florida residents by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. More than 2,600 families and households have also registered for its individual disaster assistance program, according to a FEMA statement.

Agricultural damage could reach $2.8 billion in Georgia alone. Major losses are expected in Georgia’s cotton and timber industries, the Georgia Department of Agriculture told CNN. In Florida, were about 1 million acres of field crops were impacted by the hurricane, 90 percent of cotton crops and 40 percent of peanut crops are expected to be at risk, according to the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

What’s next: Damage continues to be assessed and hundreds are still awaiting word from missing friends and relatives.

Reuters reported that officials in Florida have not yet given a number of how many are believed to be missing — a figure that continues to be difficult to assess with limited communication in some areas. But a private volunteer organization is working off some estimates.

The Houston-based online platform CrowdSource Rescue — which has been coordinating volunteer rescue missions in the region — told Reuters that they were searching for more than 1,135 people reported to be missing on Wednesday. By Thursday, CrowdSource reported the number of persons still unaccounted for to have dropped to 548. Matthew Marchetti, the platform’s co-founder, said they expect the number to continue to decrease by the weekend, as road conditions and cellphone signal improve.



Hurricane Michael damage: up to $3 billion in Georgia agricultural losses

“Unfortunately, our worst thoughts were realized,” Ag Commissioner Gary Black says

By Jennifer Brett


Damage from Hurricane Michael to Georgia’s agriculture industry could reach nearly $3 billion, according to new state assessments.

“These are generational losses that are unprecedented and it will take unprecedented ideas and actions to help our farm families and rural communities recover,” Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black said in a statement.

Timber losses alone are estimated at $1 billion, as about 1 million acres were destroyed, state figures show. Cotton, peanuts, pecans, vegetables and poultry also were hit hard.

“Unfortunately, our worst thoughts were realized,” Black said. “We saw months and sometimes years of work just laid over on the ground in a matter of seconds. Georgia has long led in the production of several renowned commodities and now we have the dubious distinction of also leading in the devastation and incredible loss of these prominent crops.”

The issue is poised to become political amid the state’s tight and heated governor’s race. Republican candidate Brian Kemp, who was greeted with “Farmers For Kemp” signs on his tour of south and middle Georgia earlier this month, was heartily endorsed by Vice President Mike Pence during a tour of damaged areas this week. His campaign blasted Democrat candidate Stacey Abrams’ comment that “people shouldn’t have to go into agriculture or hospitality in Georgia to make a living in Georgia” during a campaign stop in Statesboro this week.

Abrams says knocks from the Kemp camp are evidence of her appeal throughout Georgia. “I believe the appropriate hip-hop term is, ‘They are shook,’” she told the cheering Statesboro crowd. “Because that’s why they’re saying crazy stuff all the time.”

None of the farmers The Atlanta Journal-Constitution spoke to on Wednesday brought up politics at all. They’re too busy surveying damage and figuring out how to press on.

“This will probably put us out of business,” said Bainbridge farmer Eric Cohen. “Farming is the heartbeat of south Georgia. It’s not just us. It’s the guys selling guns, it’s the clothing stores, the jewelry stores. The timber industry, look what it’s going to do to it.”

Cohen has been farming for 18 years. He recalls the mess from Hurricane Kate, which hit the Florida Panhandle at Category 2 strength in 1985. He was 7 at the time and pitched in during the cleanup efforts in his father’s pecan orchards.

“It was the storm we always feared. I remember it vividly,” he said. “This one was 10 times worse.”

Greg Calhoun hasn’t been able to get to all of the acreage he farms in Miller, Decatur, Seminole, Baker and Early counties, but he knows it’s bad.

“This is not going to be a short-term fix. This is going to take years,” he said. His family has been farming for as long as he can remember. He cannot recall a storm so devastating.

“The only thing I’ve seen that would compare to this is maybe Puerto Rico, on TV,” he said, referring to Hurricane Maria. “Everything’s mangled up.”

Armed looters target homes devastated by Hurricane Michael in Florida

Oct 17, 2018

By The Associated Press

PANAMA CITY, Fla. -- Armed looters are targeting homes and businesses that remain without electricity after being ravaged by Hurricane Michael a week ago.

Sheriff's Maj. Jimmy Stanford said deputies have arrested about 10 looters each night since Florida's Bay County took a direct hit from the strong Category 4 storm last Wednesday. In some parts of the county, residents have spray-painted signs warning that "looters will be shot."

Callaway resident Victoria Smith told the News Herald that thieves came into her townhome while she and her four children were sleeping with the front door open to allow a breeze inside.

"I must've been so exhausted from everything in the past days I didn't even hear them come in," Smith said. "They just snatched my purse out of my hands and ran. ... It was all we had."

Often the looters have been armed, Stanford said.

"Most of our officers lost their homes, have been working 16- to 18-hour shifts with no sleep, no shower, and now they're encountering armed individuals," he said. "It's a stressful time for everyone in Bay County."

The storm killed at least 16 people in Florida, most of them in the coastal county that took a direct hit from the storm, state emergency authorities said Tuesday. That's in addition to at least 10 deaths elsewhere across the South.

The scope of the storm's fury became clearer after nearly a week of missing-persons reports and desperate searches of the Florida Panhandle neighborhoods devastated by the most powerful hurricane to hit the continental U.S. in nearly 50 years.

The Florida Department of Emergency Management's count of 16 dead was twice the number previously tallied by The Associated Press, and included 12 deaths in Bay County, where the hurricane slammed ashore with 155 mph (250 kph) winds and a catastrophic storm surge last Wednesday.

Bay County includes Mexico Beach, the ground-zero town of 1,000 people that was nearly obliterated, as well as Tyndall Air Force Base, Panama City and Lynn Haven, all of which were heavily damaged.

Florida emergency authorities gave no details on how the victims died.

The AP's tally also includes 10 deaths in Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina.

Mexico Beach Mayor Al Cathey said two deaths were confirmed in his town, a man and a woman who did not evacuate and whose homes were destroyed.

Only one person remained missing in Mexico Beach, Cathey said, adding that authorities were almost certain that that person evacuated before Michael and simply hasn't been contacted.

"We're holding steady at two and don't expect that number to rise," the mayor said.

Nearly 137,000 Florida customers remain without power in an 11-county region that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the Georgia border, according to information compiled by state emergency management officials.

One glimmer of hope: Cellphone service has begun returning to the stricken zone.

Cathey had a one-word exclamation when his Verizon phone started working for the first time in nearly a week: "Hallelujah!"

Verizon service also resumed in Panama City, where residents haven't been able to contact loved ones or call for help. The telecommunications giant later announced it would give a three-month credit to every Verizon customer in Bay and Gulf counties.

Gov. Rick Scott had been criticizing phone companies over what he called a slow restoration of service.

Sitting outside in the sweltering heat in the Panama City area as she fanned herself with a flyswatter, Christy Tanksley said the sudden improvement in cell service was a huge relief.

"A lot of people didn't even know we had evacuated and come back," said Tanksley, whose phone uses the Verizon network.

"I turned my phone on this morning and it started going crazy," she said. "There were all kinds of messages, Facebook notifications, emails and emergency alerts."