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BREAKING: Bloomberg reporting that China has just halted all exports of diesel and gasoline.
Things are getting interesting.
The Strait of Hormuz shows no full closure on shipping trackers right now, at least not publicly.
But what if it’s just not closed for everyone?
Some data points worth connecting:
• 5 days ago: Major escalation kicks off in Iran.
• Two days ago: President Trump announces the U.S. will start offering maritime shipping insurance on critical routes.
• Yesterday: Russian LNG tanker explodes in the Mediterranean, roughly $60-70B in LNG cargo essentially vaporized.
• Today: China cuts off all diesel and gasoline exports.
I started running the numbers on this and it’s lining up too cleanly.
China imports about 11 million barrels of crude per day, with roughly 40-45% of that flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran).
Their strategic petroleum reserves are estimated by analysts at around 90-100 days of total consumption at current burn rates of ~14-15 million barrels/day including refined products.
Cut off from Hormuz and they’re staring down the barrel of empty tanks in roughly three months.
That’s not a sustainable position. Their only realistic play would be immediate, heavy domestic rationing, factories slowed, trucking curtailed, civilian fuel limits, the works. That would slam their economy and ripple hard through global supply chains.
Remind me again…
How long does a president have under the War Powers Resolution before he has to go to Congress for an extension on military actions?
Oh, right—90 days.
Hmm 🇺🇸 Onward and upward, airforce
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