This is arguably the first American supply chain giant to announce the imposition of the vaccine edict on its employees. Union Pacific is one of the big seven railroads in the United States. While I’m unsure what percentage of all American freight is transported by UP specifically, about forty percent (by ton-miles) of all American freight is transported via railroad. A significant disruption to production at Union Pacific is likely to result in significant disruption to the US supply chain overall. This may represent the greatest threat to the supply chain and in fact to national stability since the initial onset of lockdowns. This is especially true given that other railroads are likely to follow UP’s lead, not unlike what we observed with the airlines. Therefore, UP is unlikely to be the only railroad suffering such disruptions this winter.

However, it should be noted that UP did lay off a large number of employees during the pandemic, despite skyrocketing profit. It also mothballed a large number of locomotives. It’s theoretically possible that any employees lost due to non-compliance could be easily replaced by drawing from the pool of laid off employees now prepared to submit to vaccination out of desperation, and that any locomotives which fall into disrepair due to loss of access to adequate maintenance (parts, mechanics) could also be easily replaced. UP may be in a better position than other railroads to withstand the effects of imposing the vaccine edict on its employees, and that may be why UP was the first railroad to pursue the imposition. UP is however not very innovative, is considered rather backward when compared to other railroads, and could easily have erred in its judgment in this matter.