Latest Developments in the Zhang Youxia Incident

1⃣**I. Overall Assessment**

Xi Jinping has not yet stabilized the situation

The Zhang Youxia faction continues to take action

The highest power structure of the Chinese Communist Party has not completed restructuring

The military mutiny and coup attempt failed, and the matter has not yet been concluded

Multiple factions have already intervened and formed a de facto joint balance

Negotiations are underway; this is the only internally coherent logic that explains all abnormal phenomena

This is a forced and unfinished power restructuring, rather than a coup that has already succeeded or failed.

2⃣**II. Assessment of Key Time Points**

1. The evening of January 18 was cross-confirmed by multiple parties as the time when the actual conflict occurred, marking the starting point of a rupture in the power structure

2. January 19–20:
Internal information began to circulate
Externally it remained at the “rumor stage”
The authorities had not yet formed a unified external narrative

This indicates that an internally publishable power characterization had not yet been formed.

3⃣**III. Assessment of Factional Structure and Modes of Action**

The current actors are not a single faction
Zhang Youxia’s military mutiny and coup did not succeed

Xi Jinping’s countermeasures of arrests and purge actions also did not fully succeed
The Jiang Zemin faction, the Ye Jianying faction, and Liu Yuan （former Chinese Chairman Li Shaoqi’s son) may all have intervened

This is not the action of a single faction
Multiple factions joined forces, compelled into cooperation

This is a “forced alliance,” not a “voluntary alliance”

The objectives of all parties are not completely aligned

Dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping is the basis for cooperation

Therefore, negotiations inevitably begin
A unified alternative authority cannot be formed quickly

Time is needed to coordinate interests and security boundaries

Preserving the Party and preserving the regime are the driving forces

4⃣**IV. Assessment of Xi Jinping’s Current Position**

1. He has not fully taken control of the situation

If he had already taken control:

There should not be a continued vacuum of official information

The status of key figures should not be abnormal

Lists of names and propaganda narratives should have been quickly unified

2. Even if he ultimately retains his position, his power will inevitably shrink

Xi Jinping has been repeatedly accused of having reached an internally unbearable risk threshold within the system

If he falls into a disadvantage, he may relinquish the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission

If he holds a dominant position, he may abolish the Central Military Commission structure

5⃣**V. Evidence Chain That Negotiations Are Underway**

1. Abnormal official information

No new authoritative videos

Zhang Youxia’s name has not been removed from official websites (including the Chinese Communist Party website)

Central-level media are collectively silent
No important military officials have come forward to declare loyalty to Xi or take sides

2. Abnormal status of key individuals

Xi Jinping’s elder sister Qi Qiaoqiao has not left her residence at the Shenzhen Guesthouse since the 19th

Her behavior pattern is clearly inconsistent with the past

The guesthouse is under a high-security state, involving control/protection/isolation

6⃣**VI. Logic of Representative Figures / Intermediaries**

It is necessary for “non-direct parties” to step forward

To serve as buffers

To convey bottom lines

To avoid direct confrontation among all parties

Wen Jiabao is regarded as a feasible candidate

The key is not power

But his historical image of “not clearly taking sides”

He is suitable as a transitional communication node

The Jiang Zemin faction, the Ye Jianying faction, and Liu Yuan are participating

In addition: it was already stated two days ago that Hu Jintao has passed away

7⃣**VII. The Issue of a Hereditary Successor Is a Structural Risk**

The hereditary successor arranged by Xi is a long-term hidden danger

Information has long been strictly sealed

It has never been officially confirmed

Multiple “smokescreens” have been deliberately released

Different regions

Different backgrounds

At least four target individuals or regions

A hereditary successor in Ningxia has been specifically mentioned

His official career path closely replicates Xi Jinping’s early trajectory

High-level security has already been involved

The credibility is significantly higher than other options

8⃣**VIII. External Media and Some Influencers Are Getting It Wrong**

Internal sources within the Chinese Communist Party deny current interpretations of the Zhang Youxia incident by mainstream English-language media,
Such as claims by the New York Times Chinese edition

And the Wall Street Journal’s reports alleging that Zhang sold nuclear intelligence to the United States; these should be regarded as deliberately released pretexts for conviction

These media should be directly identified as:

Media controlled by the Chinese Communist Party

They fabricate narratives to divert attention
Internal sources also deny the so-called “technical delay theory”

Saying it reflects a serious ignorance of how the Chinese Communist Party operates
They also deny the narrative-building by some major influencers

Saying those narratives divert focus and manufacture alternative explanations

That are not internally coherent

🚨At present, the situation is in a state of contest/negotiation/stalemate/mutual deterrence…

The above information comes from Canadian writer Sheng Xue @ShengXue_ca