The storm clouds of war are growing increasingly thick over the Middle East, as the U.S. military masses a huge amount of planes and ships for what looks like an increasingly likely attack on Iran.
Both
The New York Times and CNN reported yesterday that the U.S. would be ready to hit Iran by the weekend, but President Donald Trump hasn't made a final decision on whether to go through with a strike or not.
Dozens of refueling tankers have been deployed to the region, as have 50 fighter jets and two aircraft carrier strike groups, reports the Times.
During the first Trump administration, the U.S. periodically deployed additional forces to the region as a show of force against Iran without ever attacking the country. Military analysts report that this time appears different.
Defense news site
The War Zone notes that most of the U.S.' few battle-ready E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) planes, which are used to control airspace in combat situations, are either staging in Europe or already in the Middle East.
Not good, Bob.
A situation to monitor or nothing happens? For the time being, the White House is still talking like it wants to keep talking.
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Iranians in Switzerland, Reason's Matthew Petti noted yesterday. Iranian officials were quick to say those talks went well.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said that "the president has always been very clear, though, with respect to Iran or any country around the world, diplomacy is always his first option, and Iran would be very wise to make a deal."
Nevertheless, Petti notes that Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the idea that diplomacy was feasible with the Iranian regime in his remarks at the Munich Security Conference on Monday.
Similar to the recent intervention in Venezuela that led to the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro, the White House isn't even bothering to consult Congress about a war with Iran or even to make a propagandistic case to the American people that a new Middle Eastern conflict is a good idea.
Doing that would be a little too small-r Republican for this administration.
More worrisome still is the fact that Trump administration officials are increasingly talking like pre-Iraq War Bush administration officials.
Petti again:
Two officials told Reuters that they are planning for weeks of large-scale warfare. Trump told reporters last week that regime change in Iran "would be the best thing that could happen." Kushner believes that the Middle East "is a liquid and the ability to reshape is unlimited," as he wrote in September 2024.
That rhetoric is exactly how the Bush administration and its supporters sounded on the eve of the Iraq War. Not to worry, though. The Trump administration knows that it's better than the last people who got struck down for their hubris.
"I empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East," Vance told NBC News in his June 2025 interview. "I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America's national security objectives."
Who knows. Maybe this time, everything will work out just fine.
