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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183127
02/21/2026 12:21 AM
02/21/2026 12:21 AM
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A 059 Btn 16 FF MSC
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I'm watching all the noise. It always gets loud before it goes hot.
"The time for war has not yet come, but it will come and that soon, and when it does come, my advice is to draw the sword and throw away the scabbard." Gen. T.J. Jackson, March 1861
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183150
02/26/2026 12:02 PM
02/26/2026 12:02 PM
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Anonymous quote floating around the internet. I don't know where it originated. "There's thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action." Meanwhile, there's a War Powers Resolution in Congress, but Democrats won't vote on it. I'll leave you to wonder why. Onward and upward, airforce
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183152
02/27/2026 03:27 PM
02/27/2026 03:27 PM
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At 10:24 this morning, Friday February 27, the United States Ambassador to Israel emailed his own staff and told them to leave the country today. Not next week. Not when convenient. Today. Mike Huckabee, the man Donald Trump personally appointed to represent America in Israel, sent an email to every embassy employee in Jerusalem telling them that anyone wishing to depart should book “any available flight” and leave Israeli soil before the day ends. The embassy has shifted to “authorized departure” status, meaning the US government will pay for nonessential personnel and their families to evacuate. The New York Times obtained the email. The timestamp is 10:24 AM local time. The language says “no need to panic.” The action says panic. When an ambassador tells his own people to leave the country he is assigned to, he is not managing risk. He is clearing the blast radius. Authorized departure is the second-to-last step on the State Department’s crisis escalation ladder. The only step above it is ordered departure, which is mandatory evacuation. The United States has not reached ordered departure. But at 10:24 this morning it reached the step directly below it, and the ambassador personally urged speed. Now hold this against what happened in the last 72 hours. Wednesday, Geneva. Six and a half hours of talks. Araghchi called it the most serious session yet. The Wall Street Journal reported the US and Iran remain far apart on every core issue. Iran refused permanent zero enrichment. America refused anything less. Thursday, 37 advanced combat aircraft landed at RAF Lakenheath in a single day. 12 F-35As. 14 F-15E Strike Eagles. Additional F-22s. The staging base that funneled the first wave of Raptors to Israel is now reloading with strike aircraft carrying 23,000 pounds of ordnance each. Friday morning, the ambassador tells his people to leave. Wednesday you negotiate. Thursday you reload. Friday you evacuate your own embassy. That is not a sequence of unrelated events. That is a countdown visible to anyone reading the timestamps. Huckabee’s email went out five hours ago. Tomorrow, Saturday February 28, Oman’s Foreign Minister meets Vice President Vance in Washington carrying Tehran’s response to Geneva. Technical talks are nominally scheduled for Vienna next week. But you do not tell your embassy staff to leave today if you believe next week’s talks will happen in a world that looks like this one. The email says “make plans sooner rather than later.” Ambassadors are trained to communicate in precise diplomatic language where every word is calibrated. “Sooner rather than later” from a political appointee who does not speak in euphemism means the window for safe commercial departure is closing and he knows approximately when it closes. India told its citizens to leave Iran. Germany told citizens in Israel to prepare for airspace closures. Beirut’s US embassy began evacuating. And now America’s own ambassador in Jerusalem is telling his own staff to get out of the country he represents. Everyone with classified briefing access is moving in the same direction. Toward the exit. Today. Not Monday. Not after Vienna. Today, Friday February 27. The people who know what is coming are not waiting to find out. They are already on planes. The only people still debating whether this is real are the ones without the clearance to read what Huckabee read before he typed that email at 10:24 am this morning. https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans Onward and upward, airforce
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183154
02/27/2026 11:40 PM
02/27/2026 11:40 PM
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Over the last couple of hours, at least 11 C-17A Globemaster llls and a C-5M Super Galaxy have departed bases in the Middle East returning to Europe, with, for the first time in several weeks, no military cargo flights currently bound for the Middle East from airbases in Europe. This follows a message seen earlier today over ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) from the U.S. Air Force’s Tanker Airlift Control Center (TACC) located at Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, directed at several C-17s heading to King Abdullah II Air Base in Jordan and other locations in the Middle East, which stated “PLEASE MINIMIZE GND TIME. I CANNOT PASS ANYMORE INFO AT THIS TIME.” Onward and upward, airforce
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183156
02/28/2026 12:10 PM
02/28/2026 12:10 PM
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Boy, this would sure be a damn shame, wouldn't it? Israeli Channel 12 is reporting, citing unnamed intelligence sources, growing indications that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in this morning’s strikes.
Not injured. Not relocated. Killed.
The assessment is not based on satellite imagery. It is based on human intelligence sources inside the Iranian regime. The same sources that told Israel when the leadership gathering would happen. The same sources that provided the timing for an 8:15 a.m. daylight strike that broke every pattern of every Israeli operation against Iran in history. Israel did not bomb a building and hope. Israel struck a specific room at a specific time because someone inside that room’s security perimeter told them exactly when to strike.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded with five words: “still alive as far as I know.” That is not a denial. That is a man who does not have contact with his own Supreme Leader and is hedging in real time on live television. A foreign minister with confirmed communication to his head of state says “he is alive.” A foreign minister who has lost contact says “as far as I know.”
Israel has also announced that a promised Khamenei speech to the nation, if it airs at all, will have been prerecorded. Think about what that means. Israeli intelligence is confident enough in the assessment to publicly predict that any proof of life will be fabricated. They are not waiting for confirmation. They are preemptively discrediting the denial.
No Iranian state media outlet has shown Khamenei. No IRGC commander has issued a statement confirming contact with the Supreme Leader. No proof-of-life video has surfaced. Iran launched retaliatory missiles at six countries within hours of the strikes. That requires no supreme leader. That requires standing orders and panicked generals. What requires a supreme leader is what comes next: the decision to escalate to total war, activate Hormuz, or negotiate. That decision has no visible author tonight.
Khamenei has ruled Iran for 35 years. He succeeded Khomeini. He built the nuclear program. He funded Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Iraqi militias. He outlasted eight American presidents. The entire architecture of the Islamic Republic, its theology, its military doctrine, its succession protocols, flows through one 86-year-old man who has not been seen or heard from since 8:15 this morning.
If he is alive, one video ends this speculation in seconds.
The silence is the story. Maybe he should have hopped on that flight to Moscow when he had a chance. Oh well. Onward and upward, airforce
Last edited by airforce; 02/28/2026 12:11 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183157
02/28/2026 12:14 PM
02/28/2026 12:14 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 02/28/2026 12:17 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183158
02/28/2026 12:23 PM
02/28/2026 12:23 PM
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Israel didn't bomb Iran. They bombed Iran's leaders. They did not bomb Iran. They waited for Iran’s entire leadership to sit down in the same room and then they bombed Iran.
Months of intelligence. Thousands of hours of surveillance and signal intercepts. One variable: the moment the Supreme Leader, the President, and senior military command gathered in a single location at the same time.
That moment was 8:15 this morning. Daylight. Every previous Israeli strike on Iran came at night. June 2025 launched in darkness. October 2024 after midnight. Iran’s entire air defense doctrine is built around the assumption that Israel attacks in the dark. Israel attacked in broad daylight because the target was not infrastructure. The target was a meeting.
Reuters confirms strikes targeted Khamenei and Pezeshkian. CNN confirms months of joint US-Israeli planning. Israeli officials confirmed the strike hit the location where Iran’s top officials were gathered. Whether Khamenei was moved before the strike or extracted after is the most consequential unknown on the planet right now. If before, someone inside Tehran’s inner circle told Jerusalem when and where the meeting would happen. If after, the strikes hit the room and he survived. Both scenarios are catastrophic for the regime.
Because Iran’s leadership now knows three things. Israel knew where they were meeting. Israel knew when they were meeting. Israel knew who would be in the room. And everything we watched over the past month, the F-22s at Ovda, the tankers at Ben Gurion, Al Udeid emptied to zero, 270 transport flights, all of it was the delivery architecture for one precision strike on one gathering.
Every future meeting of Iran’s senior leadership now carries one question: does Israel know about this one too.
This is not a military operation. This is the destruction of institutional trust inside a regime. Every general who sits with Khamenei tomorrow will wonder who told Jerusalem about today. Every IRGC commander who receives a meeting summons will calculate whether attendance is duty or a death sentence. Every secure facility in Tehran has been proven insecure.
In June 2025 Israel killed 30 generals in the opening minutes. That was brute force across dispersed targets. This was a scalpel. One meeting. One moment. Months of patience.
Iran fired missiles at six countries in retaliation. Most intercepted. One civilian dead from debris in Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia responded by pledging all its capabilities against Iran. The Gulf coalition that did not exist yesterday exists today because Tehran built it by attacking everyone simultaneously.
Israel traded one morning of precision strikes for the permanent destruction of Iran’s command cohesion.
That is not a battle. That is checkmate disguised as a first move. Onward and upward, airforce.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183160
02/28/2026 03:09 PM
02/28/2026 03:09 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 02/28/2026 03:19 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183161
02/28/2026 04:18 PM
02/28/2026 04:18 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 02/28/2026 05:12 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183163
02/28/2026 05:46 PM
02/28/2026 05:46 PM
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And sometimes, rarely, it does.
Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 02/28/2026 06:40 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183164
02/28/2026 06:57 PM
02/28/2026 06:57 PM
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Is he dead, or isn't he?
Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 02/28/2026 07:33 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183170
03/01/2026 02:26 PM
03/01/2026 02:26 PM
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This was worth a chuckle.
Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/01/2026 03:43 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183175
03/01/2026 11:03 PM
03/01/2026 11:03 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/01/2026 11:35 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183176
03/01/2026 11:37 PM
03/01/2026 11:37 PM
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From someone inside Tehran: Translation: After hours of outage, I’ve barely managed to connect to the internet, and it’ll probably cut out again; Tehran is under the most intense bombardment in history, and they’ve struck all the repression centers—even the police stations. The process of weakening the regime’s killer military forces has been extremely rapid, and in all Tehran neighborhoods, there’s practically no significant force left.
According to local reports, many Basij and IRGC forces have fled out of fear of being killed, and only the extreme religious kids and regime-loyal board members are wailing in mosques and Husseiniyahs for Khamenei’s death, as if they’re determined to resist until the very moment of collapse.
"Labeik ya Mahdi" cars are abundantly visible at the doors of Husseiniyahs and mosques in the neighborhoods, and each one is an obvious target for the people.
Once again, our emphasis from Tehran is to tell the people: only come to the streets after the order is issued by His Majesty Reza Shah II.
Do not leave the city and prepare even more for the day of revenge.
The day of Iran’s freedom is near.
Long live Iran
#JavidShah Onward and upward, airforce
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183181
03/02/2026 11:27 PM
03/02/2026 11:27 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/02/2026 11:58 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183183
03/03/2026 12:10 PM
03/03/2026 12:10 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/03/2026 12:20 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183192
03/04/2026 01:55 PM
03/04/2026 01:55 PM
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Speaking of fanatics...
Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/04/2026 01:56 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183193
03/04/2026 03:57 PM
03/04/2026 03:57 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/04/2026 11:14 PM.
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183194
03/04/2026 11:17 PM
03/04/2026 11:17 PM
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KURDISH FRONT OPERATIONAL REPORT
Iran Western Theater | March 4, 2026
A new axis may be opening in the war against the Islamic Republic.
While most attention remains on the air war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Kurdish fighters may now be moving on the ground inside western Iran.
Several reports today claim Kurdish groups have launched cross-border attacks from Iraq into Iranian Kurdistan, with some outlets describing the beginning of a broader offensive. If accurate, this would represent the first meaningful ground front inside Iran since the current conflict began.
➡️What Is Being Reported
Multiple outlets today describe a rapidly evolving situation along the Iran–Iraq border.
Key elements reported:
• Kurdish fighters may have crossed from Iraqi Kurdistan into Iran.
• Kurdish groups say they are preparing or already conducting operations inside Iranian territory.
• Some claims suggest the city of Marivan may already be contested or abandoned by regime forces.
At the same time, reporting from several sources indicates Kurdish opposition militias have consulted with the United States about potential operations against Iranian security forces and requested intelligence, weapons, and training support.
Separate reporting claims U.S. intelligence agencies are exploring plans to arm Kurdish opposition forces to trigger an uprising against the regime.
None of these claims are fully confirmed yet. But the pattern is becoming difficult to ignore.
➡️➡️Why the Kurdish Front Matters
The Kurdish regions of western Iran are one of the regime’s most persistent internal pressure points. Several million Kurds live in Iran, concentrated in provinces along the Iraqi border. These areas have historically seen repeated cycles of protest and insurgency.
During the recent protests triggered by Mahsa Amini’s death, Kurdish cities were among the first places where demonstrations erupted and spread nationwide.
For Tehran, Kurdish unrest has always represented a dual threat: Internal instability among populations hostile to the regime, and Cross-border infiltration by armed Kurdish groups based in Iraq
If Kurdish fighters begin operating inside Iran in significant numbers, Tehran faces a serious operational problem.
➡️The Kurdish Forces Involved
The fighters being discussed are primarily Iranian Kurdish opposition groups operating from Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.
These groups include factions such as:
• Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (PDKI)
• Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK)
• PJAK and other Kurdish militant organizations
Many of these groups recently formed a political and military coalition designed to coordinate opposition to the Islamic Republic.
In recent statements, the coalition has urged Iranian soldiers stationed in Kurdish regions to defect from the regime and align with opposition forces.
That messaging suggests they are preparing for a broader confrontation if the regime weakens.
➡️Tehran’s Immediate Problem
If Kurdish fighters establish even limited footholds inside Iran’s western provinces, the regime faces several serious challenges.
First, it must divert IRGC and internal security units to contain the insurgency.
Second, Kurdish activity could encourage local unrest or protests, especially in areas already hostile to the regime.
Third, the geography strongly favors insurgents.
The Zagros Mountains along the Iran–Iraq border have historically been extremely difficult terrain for centralized control. That environment is ideal for guerrilla warfare.
➡️Between the Lines
There is a strategic logic emerging behind these developments. The air campaign weakens the regime’s military infrastructure. But internal insurgency pressures something else entirely.
If Kurdish regions begin slipping out of regime control while external strikes continue, Tehran’s problem stops being military losses and becomes regime stability. This is why the Kurdish angle matters. A regime under attack from the air can still survive. A regime facing simultaneous external pressure and internal rebellion becomes far more fragile.
➡️What To Watch Next
If this Kurdish front is real and not simply information warfare, several indicators should appear quickly:
• Sustained attacks on Iranian checkpoints and IRGC facilities
• Kurdish forces establishing positions inside Iranian territory
• Iranian missile or drone strikes against Kurdish bases in Iraq
• Calls for mass mobilization inside Iranian Kurdish cities
If these indicators appear together, it would signal that a genuine insurgent front has opened inside Iran.
➡️Bottom Line
Right now, the Kurdish situation remains fluid and partly unconfirmed. But the reporting emerging today suggests something potentially significant.
The air war may be the most visible part of the conflict.
But if Kurdish fighters are indeed moving across the border into Iran, then the Islamic Republic could suddenly find itself fighting two wars at once.
One in the skies. And one inside its own borders. Onward and upward, airforce
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Re: Should We Intervene in Iran?
[Re: airforce]
#183207
03/06/2026 03:41 PM
03/06/2026 03:41 PM
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Onward and upward,
airforce
Last edited by airforce; 03/06/2026 03:45 PM.
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