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Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101663
09/03/2014 02:17 AM
09/03/2014 02:17 AM
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I finished re-reading Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam over the weekend. (It’s a MUST READ; non-negotiable for preppers and Patriots.) After talking with a few friends, it dawned on me that formulating a defense plan for post-SHTF preppers is a lot like planning for the counterinsurgencies of Iraq and Afghanistan. Preppers need not become experts on counterinsurgency, but I recommend learning the tenets and learning from others’ experiences. There are (at least) three reasons why preppers should learn about counterinsurgency: re-establishing local governance, taming the criminal/irregular threat, prioritizing missions with competing resources.

(Re-) Establishing Local Governance.

Unlike the other forms of warfare, counterinsurgency (COIN) is population-centric. As the populace goes, so goes the conflict. COIN is a battle for legitimacy: in a vacuum, who has the rightful authority? That boils down to perception, which is why its critically important (can’t stress that enough) to be able to influence the populace and win them to your side. We do that, in part, by providing for them. We provide security firstly. One thing I’ve learned in dealing with Iraqis and Afghans, and I can extrapolate from there to include the entire population of the world, is that most human beings want security; they want to see their children grow up and be successful. They don’t want to live in a war zone; they don’t want to live in fear of being blown up by an artillery round or an IED. They want peace and security because peace and security mean prosperity. Therefore, the populace is much more willing to support whichever side is able to provide that peace and security, as a general rule of thumb. In other words, they will support the faction that seeks justice, upholds the rule of law, and prosecutes those who break the law. If you’re not scoping out your local and county law enforcement and learning about their abilities to provide peace and security for the populace (and where they plan to provide it; it won’t be everywhere), then you have an enormous intelligence gap to fill. Work on filling that soon; start this week. (It’s as simple as a conversation and asking some questions. It’s really no more complicated than that.)

Infamous Chinese communist guerrilla leader Mao Tse Tung referred to the populace as the water in which the fish (guerrillas) swim. That is, the guerrillas use the populace for mobility and support. Fish get from Point A to Point B by swimming in the water, and that water completely sustains them. They get everything they need from the water. Depending on the situation, you may be battling guerrillas in the form of criminals and gangs, or you may be a guerrilla fighting off tyranny. Today we’re focusing on the former scenario: grid-down, looting, survival.

If there is a lack of governance, perceived or physical, then tribalism will be a likely result. The people in Area A are going to build a community government, the people in Area B will live under the ‘government’ chosen for them by local gangs, and anyone not in one of those two categories may just live far enough out that life goes on, regardless of government. (Now before we start a philosophical argument about the need for government, I’m defining government as the mechanism that enforces the rule of Constitutional law and generally protects the citizens from each other.) So when you look at your area, consider under which category you’ll fall.

Part of the great battle in areas of Iraq and Afghanistan was supporting a local government that was corrupt, incompetent, or both. (Often times, it seemed that incompetence bred corruption, and corruption led to further incompetence. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?) Because of standing up good governance was so problematic, the Army introduced Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT). The PRTs were groups of military leaders, political scientists, social scientists, engineers, agricultural specialists, and other professions with the mission of advising provincial and local government to better enable governance.

One of things I’ve brought up before is just what happens after survival. Whether you think it’s an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), or fiscal collapse, or government collapse, whatever; Event X happens and then it’s time to rebuild. (Or maybe there is no specific Event X, and we just continue a decline while we see dramatic increases in lawlessness and an inability to provide security.) Are you going to lead the charge in rebuilding or aiding a lawful government, or are you going to have government, lawful or not, be built around you? Preppers may find themselves in situations where they essentially have to act as part of a PRT in aiding local law enforcement or local government (or county law enforcement/government). We absolutely cannot forgo planning for rebuilding, or supporting established, lawful government in the wake of an emergency. It’s for this reason that we ought to learn as much as we can about maintaining good governance during a conflict/counterinsurgency.

Defense Against Irregular Threats.

A large part of the reason why I compare likely post-SHTF environments with a counterinsurgency is because of the tribalism and likely insurgencies that will occur in those vacuums. There are what we call “irregular threats”. Those are the criminals, gangs, tribes, whatever, who have an agenda. It may be survival in the case of the common criminal looting out of a need to survive, or it may be establishing a fiefdom in order to implement a gang or tribe’s ideal government (which may be very un-idealistic for you).

Going back to COIN operations, we’re talking about a population-centric approach. Did killing everyone really work in Iraq and Afghanistan? Nope. Yet that seems to be the post-SHTF strategy for so many. And that’s a really intellectually lazy (not to mention immoral) way to conduct post-SHTF business. Instead of being in prolonged conflict, our goal should be instead to influence the populace capable of being influenced. Violent criminals and gangs will always exist but I don’t accept a foregone conclusion that they have to exist where I live. Earlier this year, I wrote about the Four D’s: Defend, Diminish, Deny, and Defeat. That should be the basis for all our mission and security planning. We absolutely must stop thinking about defense in linear terms; that is, we can’t keep thinking that the only way to deal with threats is to kill them. Instead, we ought to be asking ourselves why they are threats in the first place. What makes them my enemy; for what reasons are they seeking to do me harm? If it’s something as simple as because they want to survive, and for no other reason, then that’s great news! If I help them become more self-sufficient and survive, then I may have just removed an adversary from my area of operations (AO). (I get that it may be a little idealistic, however, we can’t assume that everyone who has nothing is a mortal enemy.) A lot of prepper groups aren’t that concerned with Leroy Jenkins, but are very concerned about their unprepared neighbors who might be, by one-sies and two-sies, driven to violence in order to help their families survive. If you can find alternative means – maybe food for intelligence information (the M in MICE) or improving their survivability – then not only are we reducing the threat but we’re also increasing our intelligence networks.

Now, for all the threats who can’t be persuaded – the ideological socialists or communists, the progressives, the racists, the adversaries who want to abolish the Bill of Rights, the warlords, the gangs, etc. – then we have to start invoking the Four D’s so we can achieve our rightful and lawful will. Use that Four D’s article as a refresher about how to defeat this set of threats. Remember: our fight against them is population-centric. If we can turn the populace – our neighbors – against these threats, then our security will improve. If the threats are able to turn the populace against us, then we face an existential threat. As the populace goes, so goes the conflict.

Competition for Finite Resources.

Finally, resources are finite. We have limits on manpower, limits on time, and limits on supplies. We must prioritize our missions to reflect that reality and conserve our resources. From the introduction to the Chicago Press version of the Counterinsurgency Field Manual:

Thinly stretched occupying forces were particularly brutal. Atrocity was their economy of force… Moreover, they were less concerned with with attaining legitimacy than obedience.

‘Economy of force’ is a military concept describing accomplishing the mission with the least amount of resources necessary. We don’t put a battalion at an observation post because that’s far too many resources dedicated to a mission that can be accomplished by a squad. We didn’t send an entire corps of soldiers into Grenada because it would only take roughly a division. When faced with finite resources, we absolutely must incorporate ‘economy of force’ into our planning.

Back to the quote: atrocities win battles but lose wars, especially in this day and age. We earn the populace by “attaining legitimacy” and not by behavior modification through fear, intimidation and coercion. Fearful populations are resentful populations. Resentful populations might not openly oppose you, but they’re willing to cooperate with a viable alternative. Therefore, we must seek to be a viable alternative when faced with oppression. In my mind, that’s the largest component the Liberty movement is missing — a viable alternative. We have plenty of alternatives but most realize that those alternatives are just the lesser of two evils. Don’t become the lesser of two evils; don’t kill the Constitution in the process of saving it. As a friend of mine said to me last weekend, “You don’t get morality from immorality. You don’t get good government from bad government.” (His name is John Ainsworth, hands down one of the smartest men I’ve ever met. His website is America’s Remedy and his introductory video will challenge your beliefs that your participation in politics is worthwhile, if not convince you otherwise altogether.)

Back to mission planning, we start with our objectives. Our objectives should be immediate security first, then (re-) establishment of good governance at the local level. Then we ask ourselves, “What are the paths that lead to our objectives?” The annihilation of imminent threats comes to mind; then security patrolling. Then comes community outreach, building or repairing critical infrastructure, and tracking down the remaining threats in order maintain peace and security. I can’t prioritize these things for you, however, these few items should be on the lists of most Patriots and preppers. You very well may not have the resources to accomplish all these goals. Accomplish what you can, or find a place now where you’ll be able to accomplish these objectives.

If you’re interested in implementing COIN into the rebuilding process, an action highly beneficial, then Chapters Four and Five of Counterinsurgency Field Manual discuss planning and implementation in great detail.
This post first appeared at: http://guerrillamerica.com/2014/08/prepping-post-shtf-and-counterinsurgency/


"The time for war has not yet come, but it will come and that soon, and when it does come, my advice is to draw the sword and throw away the scabbard." Gen. T.J. Jackson, March 1861
Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101664
09/03/2014 04:29 AM
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I remember Col Nagl well. He was/is a capable leader and one of the best that I worked for while in 1st BCT 1st ID. We shared a lot of the same views. And shared a theory of insurgency's evolving. Another of his Proteges to look for will be when Col. Rourke publishes his book. Col.Rourke is as well versed if not more (if that's possible on COIN)

What shocked them was I actually wrote of Insurgency!!. I remember handing Col Rourke a signed copy of both books and he was like so you're that sumbitch. Laughing..

But even as a great read and a fine primer. Readers must realize Counter insurgency is the role of the government oppressor. To quote CSM.Lawrason and Col.Prosb Counterinsurgency is the domain of the government. Insurgency is the domain of the people.

We need to study COUNTER-INSURGENCY and practice INSURGENCY. What that posts reads like is that the preppers are going to take a stand against the Insurgency. well in the eyes of the government that is us.

I see a lot of commenting on street gangs. It is obvious that if you have identified an enemy you must study that enemy. Gangs are Social orders unto them selves. They do not want to be a part of any system. They are autonomous and already have a system in place.You work with them or you eliminate them. you just don't drive them away.

They have legitimacy already.They have a justice system. they have an hierarchy, they fight their enemies every day a two or three pronged battle. Police AKA the government, Other gangs and internal power grabs. So while others are planning or preparing these guys are already doing. They have access to some of the best weapons systems money or machinery can make/buy.

they don't back down or run away if rep is on the line. they live in a world that starts with a beat down and has a cost of life.They have access to the best intelligence and they have a network that rivals China's. They have in their ranks Doctors/Lawyers, Politicians Cops Feds Military active reserve and retired. They are not to be taken lightly. They have cash, gold,gems drugs bikes more bikes cars silencers, bombs, hitmen assassins, rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.
and Mongo !!

the reality is this when you have a total collapse you will have an emptying of the prison. with a free and on the loose full force La-Eme, AN, LK and MS-13 force on the loose it will be a chaotic nightmare.

It will not be one fight one town it will be a continuous fight. your numbers will ebb more than flow. You will change or you will have to start the resistance now. Because a bankrupt government cannot let prisoners starve. Sorry boys we cant feed you and the gubmint says we cant shoot you. so you will have to go out and get a job.

This is the Vacuum Paradox. Everyone who arm chair quarterbacks in this arena sooner or later has to do some real quarter backing. Get out of the chair and get busy. Effect the change in small bites or feel the affects of not making any changes.
Insurgency is new speak for resistance, Guerrilla and Irregular warfare.I remember Col.Howard commenting on that. His quote is one word in place of four as the politicians cannot figure out who we are fighting.

Reading into this some more I will say that what we accomplished in Iraq we knew would be only temporary at best. As Col.Nagl so aptly put it ("they have to want self governance and Representative government, Or they will not keep what we gave them")

And who we killed in Afghanistan was far more precise that Iraq. What we have in Afghanistan is a convergence of Non Native fighters. You could not ask for a better place for them to contain them selves. Limited infrastructure. Limited resources and just the ONE ROAD "Hwy One" "Ring Road" for any major end item. Spin Buldak on any given day had a smoking jingle truck or two that never got to deliver its tools of death.

In February 2010 we had managed to drive a wedge between the Taliban and AQ. That wedge was carefully crafted and devised from the onset and part of the preparation for OBL's downfall.


Building the wedge.

Karazai was instructed to seek repatriation offers from mid level Taliban leaders. They could come back to their communities and have a hand in the rebuilding processes. In turn they would abandon the current Taliban regime and break away from AQ.

SF and Special Projects teams would escort them to the meetings. I was on a "special projects team"

We would pick these Personnel up at a link up point from the SF Guys. Or from other points near Fob.**** for example. take them to Kabul/Zabul depending on what part yes Kabul/Zabul Pashto/Dari.They would then link up with Afghan Brass American brass and then we would wait for what seemed for ever sometimes days. until the meet was done. then from there we would take them to TK or Helmand or where ever the pickup team was.

It did not take long for AQ to get wind of what was going on. And then the press found out. That started the execution of suspected Taliban defectors by AQ.

This created an atmosphere of our guest is dishonoring us. and a wasta confrontation had begun. By sowing the seeds of discord the retaliatory measures by the Taliban were verbal only when the news of OBL's death reached everyone.

AQ having already executed some rather well thought of Taliban leaders soon found them selves with a resistance base that was less than willing.

this also took a couple of things that are not present to home grown-coiners MONEY and POWER.

The other thing that is disturbing is the Lumping of Patriots and Preppers.

Actually two different mindsets. the regular person (Prepper) runs away from a fire the insane person(fireman) runs towards it.

Patriots are firemen.

When we put the big picture politics behind us what do we see.

Bundy ranch Patriots

The border since 1985 Patriots hell earlier if you want to go back to 79

Waco micro strikes not the compound itself Patriots'

Freeman Patriots

Ruby ridge just a man and his family wanting to be left alone Patriots

Gordon Kahl Patriot

Yori Kahl Patriot

William Cooper Patriot

Charlie Puckett Patriot

Steve Anderson Patriot

Claude Dallas Patriot

Norm Olsen Patriot

Mark Koenkre Patriot

Blade Runner Patriot

Fal-Sarge Patriot

Havoc69 Patriot

Toad Monkey Patriot

Hutaree 8 Patriots

These guys ran towards the fire. they walked the walk.
They didn't hide cans of beanie weenie in the basement.And say we will poke our heads out when the shit dies down. They were the resistance.

Two separate mentalities and two separate doctrines.I have yet to see a prepper activist get assassinated for writing the Costco raider version of Upon a pale horse. Or for forming the cache raider state coupon clippers.

Yet that's what happened to William Cooper and Charlie Puckett.

You can Gage the effectiveness you are having against your opponent by the amount of dirty tricks they will pull on you.And the Government pulled some dirty crap on the patriots I listed above.

Those who take the safe road now will not have the stomach for the hard road later.

And something that Fal3 once said if what we have now collapses why rebuild it just to repeat the process. Hell hes right build something different. Re establishing in setting ones self up for failure. Get it in place now. don't wait.Bring it online when the collapse happens. Institute a government "In name only" then when the current one goes poof bring version 2.0 revised online.


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Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101665
09/03/2014 09:09 AM
09/03/2014 09:09 AM
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Dont forget Sgt Charles Dyer! Patriot!


Fight the fight, Endure to win!
Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101666
09/03/2014 02:14 PM
09/03/2014 02:14 PM
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There was another guy not on that list some of us (cough) know did some time when the feds came down on him pretty hard supposedly walks the walk, allegedly...

I am just now on the safer road for the time being since looking to your right and left and seeing that nobody followed you to the fire is a sobering experience.

The thing about putting patriots with preppers/survivalists is to take it a little more mainstream on the prepping side, and to separate from the flag waving "my country right or wrong and I always trust the government to do what's right" type of Bush era voter. Who is just as quick to wave their NRA membership card around and pose with their BATF approved full autos and point the finger at "those other bad gun owners who give us good ol boys a bad name".

There is a militia site for that type, its the rip off of this one called WRAM where everyone gets to boast about how their informant and privilege status with the FBI is better than the other guy.


Life liberty, and the pursuit of those who threaten them.

Trump: not the president America needs, but the president America deserves.
Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101667
09/03/2014 05:18 PM
09/03/2014 05:18 PM
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Everyone should forget the cliches; look at the big picture.

Preppers and militia will always have a different mindset...because they have different roles / missions.

Both have a legitimate and essential place at the table. Both should/must be allies because both will have to rely on the resources of each other.

The preppers should have their own separate underground network. They are the supply and logistics corps.

The survivalist is prepared not only for "hard times" but is also prepared to patrol and defend his A/O. He is the auxiliary, the "neighborhood guard", the militia reserve.

The militia. This is the guerrilla force that will actively pursue and engage the aggressor. They will be strongly dependent upon the first two and should be the "protectors of them.

Remember the key word ...INTEROPERABILTY.


"The time for war has not yet come, but it will come and that soon, and when it does come, my advice is to draw the sword and throw away the scabbard." Gen. T.J. Jackson, March 1861
Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101668
09/03/2014 06:22 PM
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Leonidas I did not Mention Sgt.Dyer as the Goons are still looking to screw him more.

Breacher I did not mention you Because OPSEC and Confidentiality. Your a brother and I respect your privacy.

Con Sig Cor you make a valid point. But the roles like you said are different. And COIN is not the job of a "Home Guard"

Negotiating with the front line forces that we will have to engage is not their role.I know all to well the effects of bad Interoperability. So do the Kurds and the Sons of Iraq.

I am not slighting the prepper I just abhor anyone speaking for the patriot Movement like we are an Auxiliary to them. Most of us on this board have paid the Blood Price. Me , You, Breacher, Leonidas had a close one.

If we looked at another roll a roster of Disappeared you might really start to say wtf?!!

Like Shieldwolf Gone

Mountain Msby gone
Mad Dawg gone
Nitewalker Gone

Just gone. some with an excess of 100,000 in gear still on site.

So in this battle we pay the price over and over and over.The existing network of Preppers did nothing for Sgt.D***.

Not just Him I remember someone else in the NJ area who went down trying to help him.

Teamwork is a continuous process. And I will tell it like it is Real trust is built one firefight at a time!

We have been beaten and bloodied vetted and street cred-ed. If they espouse teamwork then start pulling some weight. Start helping patriots.Engage with them coordinate with them train with them; the numbers do not show that level of commitment yet. Until they are willing to commit in blood and sweat and risk then they are just cheerleaders.

I will train them I will do what it takes to prepare them but it sucks to go that mile shit this year 5000 miles on my car just to watch crap go back to the norm.

And for us protecting our own I have said this once and I will say it again. All I need is a phone call. A place to be and a place to go. I don't need to know who or what is getting into my car or anything about what is going on.

I am just giving a person a ride. I drop them off and go on my way.Pure plausible deniability. This is how we need to start looking out for each other. This is what we decided at a meeting that Sheildwolf called when Charlie went down. We had people in the area. We couldn't find the old goat. You wont find charlie if he don't want to be found. You know that Doc. We learned from that day. That support has to be rapid and plans to E&E put in place. We made those plans.

Then Lyle Barkley I get the call off I go.Thanks rick dumb ass Stanley you were an Idiot picking on a former Vietnam Sapper. ESSAYONS MuthaF***.

We put that fire out then nothing no more calls got busy went places blew shit up killed things bad guys medevacs and so forth. Now I'm back I have time and resolve and commitment.

We all have resolve and commitment we exercise it. We just need to focus it in ways that help us.
And waiting for a collapse is not the answer preventing the collapse through a gradual reshaping of what we have now is a better alternative.

I know jobs and family and such yes correct and understandable a man is is family he is the product of what he does. Very true and commendable. We strive to protect whats ours. And I strive to protect whats yours.

I protect whats mine and if anyplace I have catches on fire the FD already knows let it burn evacuate the area. watch the fireworks. Pull a Monty Python and run away then run away some more.

We must look at protection in layers local state regional forget the fed level way out of our hands that is not to be protected but controlled or dismantled.I know the preppers have a different mindset but it that does not mean to associate with us by name only.

It means working with us and learning from us and training with us. Until you know exactly how much ground your local unit can cover and what they can do for you then you are in an operational blackout.

Allies train together they freeze together they bleed together. Ideally They will work together each has a role as you said. But so far that has been just an Idea or Ideal. Haven't seen it in practice yet.When they synergy is achieved then we can look at bigger pictures.

Counter Insurgency is just not that picture.


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Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101669
09/04/2014 04:17 AM
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I think on those guys who came up missing, they are all on the other side of the country from me, but you guys were keeping better track of that than I was.

I am aware that the opposition has people fairly well versed in "counter forensics", but really forming up a missing persons investigation, making it public, and publicly acknowledging the primary suspects would give legitimacy to the people doing the operation. That issue of establishing certain parallel government function.

Not that it would be an outright solicitation of accusations against the government, but it would raise awareness on several levels, probably also provoke a bunch of snarky remarks and jeers from people who would also be our enemies too, and that's who we get to identify for future reference - the kinds of people who would go along with it or look the other way if any more of our people are picked up and "disappeared".

That is not to mention the nagging questions I have about that cousin or niece of JT ready who survived the shooting rampage at his house, and who knows whether or not he nutted up and wasted his family before offing himself or it was an outside hit and he simply did not have time to react. I seriously doubt the FBI are just loving, caring and thoughtful people that they are keeping her sequestered just to preserve her from the emotional trauma of telling the story, I mean, we are talking about people who will kill someone in the course of an interrogation when they are not getting the answers they want like with Trentadue and that other guy associated with the Tsarnaev brothers.

I am really curious about what that surviving witness would have to say about JT Ready and the Gilbert shootings. According to Wikipedia (for now), JT Ready's military record would seem to indicate that he was the equivalent to being a felon the whole time (bad conduct discharge). Interesting, I can't tell from here if that is all true or a post mortem smear campaign.

I thought there was some girl who survived the incident and was being hidden, but no mention of her in the Wikipedia article. They do mention a teenage girl who died at the hospital..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._T._Ready


Life liberty, and the pursuit of those who threaten them.

Trump: not the president America needs, but the president America deserves.
Re: Why Prepping and Counterinsurgency Go Hand in Hand #101670
09/04/2014 05:20 AM
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Only way to find out about JT ready would be the national Archives.I could take the metro and head that way.

the thing is we need to look at a timeline analysis of all known actors in the area. I know of the shootings that the fibbies were looking into. Now if the desert shooting were linked to jt then that wont be solved anytime soon. there is a very close association between Glenn Spencer/jt ready/simcox/jacke foote. very similar time lines very similar backgrounds and all from the same two area of operations prior to AZ. those being Florida and California.

when agendas are hidden inside of other agendas and the underlying goal was to merely make money off of donations and scams . it looks more like a crime ring than a patriot based save the border operation.the same with the MMP they also came from the same area as those guys. The one guy native to the area Barnett the bossy cow rancher told them to get the hell off of his property and not come back. Barnett's family has been in AZ since the Clanton days. He didn't want help or need help. And he smelled fish on them . Aint no fish on the Barnett ranch. And you don't go to a Cattle Ranch smelling of two things Fish or Branding Irons


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