Deepwater Horizon: The Worst-Case Scenario
Posted Jun 20, 2010 by Richard Heinberg

Reports from the Gulf of Mexico just keep getting worse. Estimates of the rate of oil spillage from the Deepwater Horizon wellhead just keep gushing (the latest official number: up to 60,000 barrels per day). Forecasts for how long it will take before the leak is finally plugged continue pluming toward August—maybe even December. In addition to the oil itself, BP has (in this case deliberately) spilled a million gallons of toxic Corexit dispersant. Biologists’ accounts of the devastation being wreaked on fish, birds, amphibians, turtles, coral reefs, and marshes grow more apocalyptic by the day—especially in view of the fact that the vast majority of animal victims die alone and uncounted. Warnings are now being raised that the natural gas being vented along with the oil will significantly extend the giant dead zones in the Gulf. And guesses as to the ultimate economic toll of this still-unfolding tragedy—on everything from the tourism and fishing industries of at least five coastal states to the pensioners in Britain whose futures are at risk if BP files for bankruptcy or is taken over by a Chinese oil company—surge every time an analyst steps back to consider the situation from another angle.

We all want the least-bad outcome here. But what if events continue on the current trajectory—that is, what if the situation keeps deteriorating? Just how awful could this get?

For weeks various petroleum engineers and geologists working on the sidelines have speculated that the problems with the Deepwater Horizon may go deep—that the steel well casing, and the cement that seals and supports that casing against the surrounding rock, may have been seriously breached far beneath the seabed. If that is true, then escaping oil mixed with sand could be eroding what’s left of the well casing and cement, pushing out through the cracks and destabilizing the ground around the casing. According to Lisa Margonelli in The Atlantic:

There is the possibility that as the ground and the casing shift, the whole thing collapses inward, the giant Blow Out Preventer falls over, the drill pipe shoots out of the remains of the well, or any number of other scenarios,” that could making it virtually impossible ever to cap the well or even to plug it at depth via relief wells.

Read, for example, this comment at TheOilDrum.com, a site frequented by oil industry technical insiders who often post anonymously. The author of the comment, “dougr,” argues fairly persuasively that disintegration of the sub-surface casing and cement is the best explanation for the recent failure of “top kill” efforts to stop the oil flow by forcibly injecting mud into the wellhead.

Concerns about the integrity of the sub-seabed well casing appear also to be motivating some seriously doomerish recent public statements from Matt Simmons, the energy investment banker who decided to go rogue a couple of years ago following the publication of his controversial Peak Oil book Twilight in the Desert. Simmons says, for example, that “it could be 24 years before the deepwater gusher ends,” a forecast that makes little sense if one accepts the conventional view of what’s wrong with the Deepwater Horizon well and how long it will take to plug it with relief wells.

Are these concerns credible? From a technical standpoint, it is clear that improperly cemented wells can and do rupture and cause blowouts. It’s fairly clear that this is part of what happened with Deepwater Horizon. But is the well casing further disintegrating, and is oil escaping the well bore horizontally as well as vertically? We just don’t know. And that is largely due to the fact that BP is as opaque on this score as it has been with regard to nearly every sensitive technical issue (including the rate of leakage) since its drilling rig exploded two months ago.

So far, up to 3.6 million barrels of oil have spilled into the Gulf. The size of the Macondo oilfield has been estimated as being anywhere from 25 to 100 million barrels. It is unclear how much of that oil-in-place would escape upward into Gulf waters if its flow remained completely unchecked, but it is safe to assume that at least half, and probably a much greater proportion, would eventually drain upward. That means many times as much oil would enter the Gulf waters as has done so until now.

Already Deepwater Horizon is the not only the worst oil spill, but the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. Multiplying the scale of this existing catastrophe multiple times sends us into truly uncharted territory.

Already, coastal ecosystems are being shredded; for a sense of how bad it is for wildlife in the Gulf now, just read “Biologists fear Gulf wildlife will suffer for generations.” In a truly worst case, oil — and perhaps dissolved methane as well — would hitch a ride on ocean currents out to the deep Atlantic, spreading ecological destruction far and wide.

For the economies of coastal states, a worst-case leakage scenario would be utterly devastating. Not only the fishing industry, but the oil industry as well would be fatally crippled, due to the disruption of operations at refineries. Shipping via the Mississippi River, which handles 60 percent of all U.S. grain exports, could be imperiled, since the Port of South Louisiana, the largest bulk cargo port in the world, might have to be closed if ships are unable to operate in oil-drenched waters. Unemployment in the region would soar and economic refugees would scatter in all directions.

The consequences for BP would almost certainly be fatal: it is questionable whether the corporation can survive even in the best case (that is, if “bottom kill” efforts succeed in August); if the spill goes on past the end of the year, then claims against the company and investor flight will probably push it into bankruptcy. Americans may shed few tears over this prospect, but BP happens to be Great Britain’s largest corporation, so the impact to the British economy could be substantial.

The consequences for the oil industry as a whole would also be dire. More regulations, soaring insurance rates, and drilling moratoria would lead to oil price spikes and shortages. Foreign national oil companies could of course continue to operate much as before, but the big independent companies, even if they shifted operations elsewhere, would be hit hard.

For President Obama, an environmental disaster of the scale we are discussing could have political consequences at least equivalent to those of the Iranian hostage crisis during the Carter presidency. Obama’s only chance at survival would be an FDR-like show of leadership backed by bold energy and economic plans and ruthless disregard for partisan bickering and monied interests.

For the U.S. economy, already weakened by a still-unfolding financial crisis, a worst-case scenario in the Gulf could be the last straw. The cumulative impacts—falling grain exports, soaring unemployment in southeastern coastal states, higher oil prices—would almost certainly spell the end to any hope of recovery and might push the nation into the worst Depression in its history.

We would all prefer not even to contemplate such a scenario, much less live with it. It is irresponsible to inflict needless worry on readers on the basis of entirely speculative and extremely unlikely events. But the more I learn about the technical issues, and the worse news gets, the more likely this scenario seems. We all hope that a relief well will succeed in stopping the oil flow sometime around August, and that until then BP will be able to siphon off most of the oil escaping through the riser and damaged blowout preventer. But one has to wonder: is anyone at the White House seriously considering the worst-case scenario? And what should citizens be doing to prepare, just in case?

It would be wise to start considering how to survive long term in a enviroment continuously polluted by this oil volcano. Estimates are that the oil spillage itself will reach the Atlantic by late summer-fall but hurricanes-starting with TS Agatha-will be spreading this pollution into the Gulf Stream as early as in one week.

In two years ALL the world's oceans and seas will have some concentration of crude oil, hydrogen sulfide, corexit 9500. As storm systems are generated in the Gulf of Mexico they will carry this pollution for thousands of miles in several hundred mile wide swaths.

There will be a mad rush to fish in unpolluted waters to feed the still-growing populations, but that will only empty the seas even sooner.

Open air agriculture will become a thing of the past wherever the pollution propegates. The last bastion of open air agriculture will likely be parts of the Midwest out of reach of Gulf moisture and Canada. That however is but a matter of time before the pollution reaches those regions.

Food will have to be grown indoors, hydroponically in greenhouses with augmentation with grow lamps at night in order to induce increased production to ATTEMPT to make up for the shortfall from the increasing loss of farmland and fisheries.

These greenhouses INVITE control by the beast that unleashed the gulf oil volcano in the first place; greenhouses need power and the enemy can send their tin badge gods in to shut them down any time-they're going after AMISH for trading raw milk, how long do you think a Patriot run unlicensed greenhouse will last?

So, not only will greenhouses be needed but the means to produce power independent of the enemy's power grid will be needed. Coming monetary controls due to the engineered global collapse will end their fiat cash so we will need our own currency/currency standards. Or barter.

To defend these greenhouses will take a community effort. A band of militiamen are NOT cut out for essentially a defensive stand against enemy air and armor and superior numbers. Not even in a flexible defense in depth would work.

No; defending these greenhouses will require whole towns and counties working together in mutal defense. For the militia to achieve this they will have to transform their publicly known units into political machines and community organizers and promise full spectrum reform. The GIs of Athens TN 1946 are the model required-except we must SUSTAIN the effort and expand.

Political, economic and social emancipation from the beast and the will and means to secure that emancipation will be the ONLY means to defend those greenhouses in an enviroment not only polluted by toxins originating from the Gulf of Mexico, but from the enemy; the US federal and state governments and their controllers the bankers and European royalty.

ConSigCor
I seem to remember that in 1979 this same drilling company did this off the coast of South America. The oil rolled up on the coast from much further away than this, and in much greater quantity, and from much less leakage?
I watched the leak feeds for about an hour yesterday and I too saw the fire balls at 5000 feet and very low temperatures.
It is my belief that the only emergency is that being generated by spraying CAREX9500 over populated areas. In the next few weeks we will see more of the reports I read this Morning about "Oil Rain". This is a "Red Flag" by for and controlled by the Administration.
I believe that in a couple of weeks people in the Gulf will start getting Ill and a "Health Emergency" will be declared and the people will be moved to "Secure" locations for screening and "Quarantine".
When the entire area is evacuated anyone left will be considered a terrorist trying to sneak in. When the boats and land are determined to be abandoned the banks will claim them and show another loss the Bailout can pay them for and in 15 to 20 years a the area will be declared safe and the Banks will resell the land to developers for Condos, Gambling Casinos, and National Forests that can never be built upon.
That will be the United States part of Agenda 21 for the next 30 years.

Safetalker, you say it's kind of a conspiracy?

I hate to bring sunshine and daisies to this doom fest but here it goes.

Yes oil will spill. No it will not end soon

yes the toxic agents and gasses are worse than the oil

but this isn't nauissca of the valley of the wind. And the world will move on.

Nature will cope and adjust. A few people will die some will be born with birth defects yet in the end it will work out fairly well.

No the biggest issue and threat I see is the government using this as a distraction and or excuse to pass more restrictive laws and indeed serve as yet another moral equivelent of war for their side.

Some perspective about the ammoujt of oil spilled. It isn't even enough to have filled a quarter of the super done in new Orleans. It just spreads real thin.


Everyone should take note of the purposful delays to the clean up effort. This is being made worse to become a crisis that can be used.

ParaSkS
I see it as them doing their jobs as employees of the "UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Corp". When we fought that war for freedom in 1776 we borrowed money. Those Frenchmen that King George, who had just taken France and was the holder of the French debt for reparations, had sent to help us fight his Easter European Soldiers that he sent to kick or ass because the Real British Army had relatives in the Colonies and may have chosen sides with Us.
The war is over, we think we are free, and we have no money so we were on the hook for all those French troops at about $1.50 per day in Sterling Silver. Plus all the Rifles and powder. That note the French sold to the British to pay off the French debt to the Bank of England. We have been renegotiating that debt ever since. In 1812 they came and made a fuss because we didn't pay them. Since then we keep renegotiating that debt with the added interest and the new debts brought on by WW1, WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. Then there is the Federal Reserve who in 1937 began this Federal Reserve Notes FRN stuff and the loan keeps getting bigger. We can't pay and so we give them land like Lincoln did after the Civil War. Gold like Nixon did. It happens every few years.
The bank bail out was one of those payments. The Fed printed up a S..t load of money and gives it to the Banks it owns. Then they declare non-owned banks insolvent and their banks buy them with the printed money. They sell the bad loans to the Fed who bills the Government for it and adds it to our debt. Then they foreclose on the land and buildings and get paid again.
The we have Goldman-Saches dropping 43% of their shares in BP 17 days before the leak. The old president of BP sold about half his shares. Then the Oil Rig which is owned by a company out of Korea goes up in a flash.
Then BP begins spraying Chemicals on the water, the beaches where people live, and the old BP president steps down and the new guy moves in or the finale.
Then they, States-Fed-homeland security-whomever, move the people off the "Contaminated Land" as a part of of an evacuation, and issue the owners FRN to relocate to safety, preferably far away. Then the Fed reserve charges BP that money. BP is owned by the Bank of England. They call it a loss on stock and reduce their Taxes for 10 years.
The Fed used no money just paper and ink on a ledger and now have deeds to Gulf Coast land. Then in 20 years when the land is determined safe they sell it to a developer for gold and our interest on the debt can be paid for no investment. BP will have an oil well that will never run out of oil. The States will have taxable resort properties and income so everyone except the people who were moved off that property, is happy. The "Evacuees" will have a new home, new expenses, and a few dead relatives. The loan is paid for a few more years and every one makes money.
The answer is always money.

Well as far as I'm concerned, if they want to relocate me and mine then I'd be happy to pack my stuff and move to another location. Summertime down here is just freaking hot and I'd be thrilled to move up to the ID-MT-WY region or even eastern TN/KY for that matter. But there are several caveats to that statement.

I'm not going to be forced to move.

I will not be told where I can and can not move.

I will not be told what personal items I can move and what I have to leave behind.

I'm not moving for free.