What’s the Next Move?
by NC Scout / americanpartisan.org
By anyone’s estimation the war in Ukraine has largely ground to a halt. Despite some of the most flagrantly bad analysis by ‘military experts’ since the invasion of Iraq, the Russian Army has exhibited re-learning a number of battlefield realities they’ve apparently had to learn repeatedly since WWII. Looking at the three pronged invasion of Ukraine through a military combined arms maneuver lens alone, it would appear they have not performed to expectation. As compared to the American experience in both invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan – the latter being a major logistical challenge alone – this would be correct. Analysts must also take into account that this war is an opening salvo in a much larger strategy, aimed at ending the unipolar world economic order centered on the US.
Much of the poor analysis on part of the west owes to historical US propaganda concerning the old Soviet Union and, as a byproduct, a complete ignorance of the reality of the situation in Ukraine. Much of eastern Ukraine considers themselves ethnically Russian or at least has cultural ties, and the pre-Tsar history of Russia originates in Kiev (NOT ‘Kyiv’, and one would do well to learn why that’s a critical difference). For this reason the Russians did not seek a total war on the people of Eastern Ukraine, have not sought to indiscriminately target critical infrastructure and have not resorted to leveling city blocks as they did in the first and second occupations of Grozny. It is a strategy with a major cost in personnel Russia appears willing to absorb, interpreted by the emotionally-driven west as a military shortcoming and inexplicably credit themselves as somehow victors for what is a Ukrainian operation. In some cases, perhaps so. But this is an extremely dangerous series of assumptions on part of a military that just self immolated in its pullout of Afghanistan.
Contrary to popular belief among the 50+ crowd, the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. This is not to say however that they are not an enemy nation, despite the mountain of economic austerity offered to the fledgling nation after the economic collapse in 1992 and following brief civil war, leading to the remnants of the Soviet Army firing on their White House. Despite the repeated offerings of peace in an effort of economic parity, the hand was consistently smacked away as NATO migrated eastward, culminating in the brief 2008 occupation of Georgia. A country, by the way, where we trained the future leadership of ISIS. The exposure of so-called western run and funded ‘biolabs’ was simply icing on the cake and the message is clear – Russia is an adversary to the economic order, plain and simple. And they have responded in kind, first in Ukraine. But it will not end there.
Russia and China have now been placed on a path of formalizing allegiances, overcoming the Sino-Soviet split exploited by Kissinger. This places the US in a highly precarious position, having exported all of its manufacturing capability in an effort to exploit cheap labor, policy makers predictably were short sighted in strategy, seeking only near-term profit margins, not considering the long term damage to the Nation. Given the levels of internal political corruption that can now no longer be ignored, the world community sees the US as nothing more than an annoyance too unstable for its own good. Partner with the US and they’ll turn their backs in a decade, or sooner, without warning. It is a condition China has gleefully exploited to the fullest, and they’re just beginning. India is willing to overlook a longtime border dispute and efforts to destabilize them through the Naxal terrorists to seek ties with China. The writing is on the wall, and it spells Belt and Road.
In South America, Africa, and into southern Europe the economic influence of Belt and Road has signaled a new economic order challenging the ‘New World Order’ of Brzezinski and Kissinger to which Presidents Bush and Biden both mentioned by name. This Belt and Road initiative, as all economics do, has been followed by military aid and partnerships in those aforementioned continents, rapidly displacing any influence the US may have enjoyed. The invasion of Ukraine represents a beginning of the end to US economic hegemony, no matter how many yellow and blue flags mouth-breathing liberals ironically fly beside Palestinian ones. The humor of virtue signaling will not be as funny when the fate of fools becomes fully realized.
Russia has been steadily making moves exploiting the very same failures of the west alongside their Chinese counterparts. While we were distracted with pointless wars enriching the political donor class on both sides of the aisle, old Soviet proxies found themselves once more in the halls of power in South and Central America, even lauded by idiot mouthpieces sympathetic to leftist causes, such as Obama dancing with Kirchner or DiBlasio and Sanders praising Daniel Ortega’s return to power. These leaders want the US dethroned as much in 2022 as they ever did, and now they have a stronger friend than back in the glory days of Soviet hegemony. Venezuela is manufacturing arms and equipment, while signaling a possible future invasion on US ally Colombia, and both Russia and China have fully backed this move. The response? The US asks Venezuela for oil. It looks desperate on part of the US, because it is.
Just to the north we have Cuba, still under the larger hegemony of the old Soviet order, having their debts cancelled by the Russian Federation in exchange for formally re-opening the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Station. In my assessment several years ago, this joint Russian and Chinese station’s role is to position new intermediate nuclear missiles. Russia suspended the intermediate nuclear forces treaty banning the development of short range nuclear payloads based on their open violations, and no new deal was sought. They didn’t want a new deal, plain and simple.
The 3M-54 Kaliber missile, the latest in Russian intermediate ‘cruise’ missile development, has now been fielded in the southern hemisphere for at least four years at a minimum, and with formal ties now in the majority of the continent, can be positioned with little if any pushback. Who’s going to do it? Big bad Uncle Sam? What will he do, sanction the host countries making the fiat dollar more expensive? Virtue signal? Write a strongly worded condemnation? Already been done and its looking like they’ve figured out a workaround.
This will culminate in the unveiling of weapons just to our south as a final blow to American foreign policy abroad. As Ukraine approaches a negotiated settlement with NATO reaching its diplomatic Waterloo, the attention will be turned to our South. Good thing the border is secure. Despite what foolish pundits, late for their tee time and overpaid for their worthless opinions may say, the Russian conventional force success or failure bears little analog to the running of a well trained proxy army with the goal of destabilizing the US. Even if that budding insurgency can be defeated, that leaves the presence of their outside support – the strategy from the south Che Guevara told anyone willing to listen.
Its the Cuban missile crisis all over again, with the US in an insurmountably weaker position than 1962. No more can we pull our weapons from Turkey to diffuse the situation – that ship sailed. We do not have the manufacturing clout that won the second world war, the underlying culture which rode that tide, nor the leadership with the will to win. What America has is cultural rot, ineffectual and corrupt leaders, a society of mentally ill and over-medicated lunatics that are too visible to hide, rather, cheerleaded as ‘heroes‘. The world sees it for what it is. Dangerous weakness, nuclear armed, led by a demented reprobate, too unstable to ignore.
Compounding this is a growing list of shortages, namely food and energy production, to which the lone answer is ‘eat bugs’ or ‘buy electric’, the modern equivalent of ‘let them eat cake’. It creates the conditions of revolution, which, as Jefferson would quip, may not be a bad thing every now and then. A government by the people is accountable to the people at some point. And that lack of accountability fomented through complacency has put blood in the water for the nation’s enemies. It is a long strategy employed, designed to surround and isolate an increasingly weak US from a world weary of its so-called leadership. And a sober look internally, who can blame them?
So what comes next? The answer should be clear. While the larger die appears cast, how you respond is up to you. What you do today for the coming storm will certainly benefit you in the coming days. Use the warning wisely.