A Discussion on ‘Bugging Out’

by Max Velocity July 17, 2017


Let’s have a discussion today about ‘bugging out.’ This is in fact a huge topic and often discussed across the prepper-sphere. There are many aspects to this and a detailed discussion, including the debate about ‘to stay or to go’ is written up in ‘Contact! A Tactical manual for Post Collapse Survival.‘ The issues, pros, cons and mistakes around this are further illustrated in the collapse-novel ‘Patriot Dawn: The Resistance Rises.‘

Given the breadth of the topic, my plan today is to focus on the idea of bugging out on foot with a ‘never coming back’ mindset. Much has been discussed before about the problems of trying to survive in the woods, or of becoming a refugee, and I think that there are a number of issues with the idea of trying to bug out from your home base carrying a huge load on your back. So much so that I believe the idea of trying to bug out on foot with a huge load is foolhardy. Let us examine why.

None of us know what form and extent a collapse, or event, will take. For the purposes of this post, let us assume that something serious has happened that has us staying in place at a location that is our home base, or retreat location. Thus, we have already gone through the decision making process of an initial ‘get home’ or ‘bug out’ to a retreat, or attempt to stay in the suburbs etc. Related to this is the idea of attempting to use whatever vehicles we have available for any sort of move that we make. We still do not know exactly what will befall us but our assumption here is that we are now at our prepared location and we are surviving in place. Thus, something will happen that will force us out of that location, and into a move on foot to escape. Let us assume for the purposes of this article that the threat displacing us is a determined gang of aggressors who are moving through the area cleaning out survivors. We cannot know the reality until we get there, but we can examine why planning to ruck out with a huge load on our backs is not a good idea.

The basics of a defense of a home base is to attempt to have patrols and observation posts out that will give you early warning of enemy approach. To do this you need a trained team. This is something that many lack. Worst case, you do not have sufficient security in place and thus you will be taken by surprise. In this case, it may already be too late for you, and you may be fixed in place, to die there. If you are defending a house it is best to do so from outside of that house. You need to be able to maneuver on the enemy to disrupt their attack, and you should aim to not be fixed in place. Your ability to do that will depend on a function of whether or not you have a trained team, the element of surprise the enemy has, their tactical skill and numbers, and whether or not you were fixed in place by the initial surprise attack. One thing to seriously consider here is what will happen with your non-combatants. These are your protected personnel such as children and the elderly, and their guardians / close protection, such as (most likely) wives etc (who need to be trained, of course). Given sufficient warning, you could get these people out of the house and move them to an offset location where they could await the results of the fight. If the fight is lost, they could continue the bug out from this rally point ‘in the woods.’ If it is won, they could be collected to return.

Alternatively, you could have a safe room in the house where you move people to as the fight goes on outside. However, if the fight is lost, they will be captured or killed. If you are taken by surprise, you may have no choice to to centralize non-combatants at a location inside the structure, simply because it is now too late to run. If you are caught unawares asleep in the house, a lot will depend on the skill and proximity of the enemy, and the terrain at and around your house. If the enemy has not set up the attack well, then you may have both time and space to bug out to a nearby rally point. However, you need to be sure that if they move out, for example, of the back door, that the enemy does not have that covered by fire, for example by an assault or support by fire group. Thus, there is a lot to be said for having a rehearsed tactical contingency plan, and to make efforts to not be taken by surprise.

This raises the next point, that of family and non-combatants. Much is talked about bugging out with huge rucks. To where? You will need resupply at some point anyway, unless you have a specific place to go. And are we all single men doing this? Or a young fit couple? Who is carrying the rucks for the kids? You need to do the planning to move this beyond a survivalist fantasy.

I have written much on the need to ensure that you do not carry too much gear, that you carry the right gear, to be able to effectively maneuver under enemy fire. You can find the rest of the links in this first link here: ‘Gear: The MVT Lite Fight Concept.‘ If you are bugging out on foot because you have been forced out, this may well be a break contact under enemy fire, then the last thing you want to do is carry too much gear. And, the rest of the group? And what if you have to carry kids at times? This also goes to the level of physical fitness you have, and ties back in to the use of vehicles, maybe UTV/ATV, as written in the linked articles on gear. You may actually have vehicles and gear stashed out at that rally point in case you need to bug out. Be sure that it falls under your security plan, and you have an alternative in case that is where the enemy comes from that day. You cannot assume an enemy will always be dumb and will come up your driveway. Do not underestimate the enemy, and try to think like they would, if they were conducting a raid on your house. For that, of course, you need to be tactically trained, to understand that process.

Yes, it may simply be worst case time and you have just been forced out. If that happens however, what guarantee do you have that you will even be able to get all that gear? Yes, you must retain the flexibility of mind and option to ensure that you do not die in place, simply because all your eggs are in one basket, that pile of dried food and prepper supplies. But if you do bug out with that ruck, where to, and where is that resupply coming from once you eat the rations you packed?

So let us look at a few planning options:

1) It is true that where most of us live, we do not live in a wilderness vacuum. The more of a wilderness you live in, of course the less likely this will be to happen to you anyway. Suffice to say, there are hundreds of buildings and structures out there, and who knows what the situation with habitation will be if this sort of crisis is ongoing. Thus, there are shelter options if you conduct a prudent check / clearance of the place before walking up to it. Of course, this may even consist of a friendly neighbor option, that you planned a mutual bug-to plan with. This will help with the reality of the situation where you are not likely to be wearing 120lbs of gear, and will more likely be dressed in your Lite Fight Concept, having conducted a fighting withdrawal, or at least one in haste with sufficient warning of the approaching threat.

2) Caches: a few points on these. This is a way of establishing supply on a planned evacuation route. You do of course need to ensure that they are put in places where they will still be there when you need them, and not controlled by others. So on what land? This can be problematic. Another way to look at this is to have close-in caches collocated at your primary and alternate close rally-points. This will allow those bugging out of the house in a hurry to equip, and fighters meeting up with them there before the bug-out to resupply with ammunition, food and water. This will help if the enemy had surprise and a caught you with your pants down. Such a proximity cache needs to be hidden but easily accessible. You could also use neighboring houses at sufficient distance, in a mutual bug-to support agreement if you had good relations with them in the collapse environment.

3) Consider that you may not bug-out at all. You may simply bug-to a nearby rally point or neighbor, and then re-take the house. How this works exactly depends on the enemy and their intent. If it is a quick raid then they may be ransacking and leaving, or maybe staying a night and moving on. If you are out there at a rally point at sufficient distance to avoid any patrols they may put out, you can get eyes-on via an observation post and move back in. You may also decide to retake the house by force, which could take the form of a counter attack if you have sufficient trained personnel, or simply harassing by fire, depending on the enemy and what you think their reaction might be. You may not want them chasing you into the woods in large numbers. Alternatively, you could set up an ambush on the egress from your house, and kill them as they leave in their vehicles. Many options there. The key thing is what you are planning if you do move back into a ransacked house, maybe even burned down. This is where close-in caches would have utility to ensure the enemy does not get all your supplies. At this time you can assess the situation and decide whether to stay, or collect gear and equipment and then follow a bug-out plan.

4) Vehicles: It makes sense to use vehicles any time you can, if you are tactically able. Even if you cannot use cars on roads due to the situation, any bug-out plan would be better if you could include some sort of all-terrain vehicles in it. Both for logistics and also the carriage of personnel.

In summary here:

Be tactically trained, physically fit, with a team.
Do not plan to carry too much gear.
Ensure that you are not taken by surprise.
Ensure you are not fixed mentally or physically in place and do not die in place as a result.
Defend by maneuver outside of any building you are defending.
If you have to bug out, consider your options and plan in advance to avoid ending up in the woods for any more than a short period of time.
Consider the use of pre-positioning supplies, including options on all-terrain vehicles, to support either an extraction, or a temporary stay out at a rally point before moving back into the house.
If there is no option other than to continue the bug out, by pre-positioning / caching you will have additional supplies, equipment and vehicles to support a more survivable bug-out.
You must plan for non-combatants such as children and the elderly and avoid thinking this is just a mans game with single guys bugging out into the woods to live there indefinitely.
If you have network in the areas via community, you may be able to establish a mutual support bug-to plan to temporarily move to the houses of others. This may also work to centralize at one location while an enemy threat is known to be in the area, for better defense of a single location.
Most of us do not live in true wilderness and there are many structures and resources out there that can be utilized for shelter and survival.

One aspect that is not covered here, and is assumed but often overlooked, is the ability to gather information and make decisions under extreme pressure with imperfect knowledge. Prior planning, physical conditioning, and tactical training will help with this. You may well be exhausted and dehydrated after a fight where some of your people were killed or wounded. You need to be able to make rational decisions about the best course of action. Planing and pre-positioning will give you more options and make those decisions easier.

I wrote about the issues surrounding decision-making here: ‘Making Decisions.‘

Making Decisions

I plan on discussing a little bit about decision making in this post. In doing that, I will relate it to combat but I will deliberately keep it away from the doctrinal rabbit holes that formal military discussions about this topic often follow; this is designed to be about you, not a military unit. So let’s talk about decision making as it relates to you and potential life threatening situations that you and your family may experience. I have seen many comments regarding a section of the ‘prepper community’ being very analytical, with the whole ‘list of lists’ thing, and this is something that can be a problem, and this type of mindset can result in much being analyzed and little being done: analysis paralysis. Analyzing and making lists may be a comfort blanket, but it will not be the solution when the hammer falls.

It can be argued that the primary issue faced by those who suddenly face a need to make a decision, is understanding that they have reached that decision point, that point at which a decision must be made. If that decision point is not recognized, and a relevant decision is not made, then we are in big trouble, and we have certainly handed the initiative over to the enemy. Denial of a developing situation is often to blame for this. In our everyday lives, nothing happens that fast, and there is often little consequence to decisions that must be made. When things of significance, perhaps life threatening, happen, then you will most likely find yourself in a time crunch, with the situation having ‘turned left.’ This is where denial comes in: you cannot do it over again, once it has happened, as much as you may perhaps want to. This denial, and wish for an alternative course of events, is what contributes to the freeze response to a situation, as you wish that it just goes away and you can return to your normal pattern of life. Without even relating this to combat, we can easily relate this to a sudden life threatening situation, which you may see develop very rapidly, such as a threatening approach by some muggers. But, you are just leaving the movie theater and you have a plan for a relaxing romantic evening! No. That wish will not make the threat go away, and you have to be able to recognize that the situation just took a left turn, and that you have reached a critical decision point, and you must react to it. If they are psychopaths, then you cannot rely on appealing to their better nature to resolve the situation, because your lives are nothing more than the wrapper on the way to the candy that they want, to be torn open and discarded. Make a decision, and execute.

Many people spend a lot of time worrying about, and preparing for, the ‘collapse.’ Ok, so, you are sitting here reading this post, and suddenly

*CLICK*

*SCREEN GOES BLACK*

Power cut. You go to the breaker panel and try and turn the power back on. It’s not happening. You try calling the power company on your cell, but you can’t get through. The situation does not resolve itself after an hour. You cannot communicate with anyone. Your kids are at school and your wife is at work. No one is going to tell you what is happening. You have imperfect information. This is not a movie when you roughly know how this will pan out. You are alone. What is your decision on your next move?

I use that as an example to show you that you will not have perfect information on what is happening. Perfect information is a movie thing. In ‘Mission Impossible’ they have perfect knowledge on all of the sophisticated enemy protective security systems before they go in and do their really cool abseiling-underwater-computer-hacking-whatever-thingy. In reality, you will not have perfect information, or perhaps any information. If you are sitting in your house in the dark right now, what information do you have on potential hostile forces coming through the woods?

There are a number of ways to deal with the denial and the lack of perfect information that do not in themselves require minute to minute decisions, but rather take that initial decision to take action. For example, let’s look at how we may take care of lack of information, through a combination of the following:

Training: Effective training is going to help with denial through effective operant conditioning, and also with the need to make decisions through a series of ‘canned’ responses. A perfect example of this is ‘Action on Enemy Contact Drills’ otherwise known as break contact drills. As part of such a drill, you will have your individual react to contact drill (RTR) which is a form of operant conditioning to allow you to react aggressively towards the threat. Following that, the break contact drill will get your team moving and thus taking action, as an alternative to being frozen in the enemy kill zone. Thus, your reaction and decision were already trained and rehearsed beforehand. As the drill continues and the situation develops, the leader can then take the opportunity to step in and direct further action depending on what he perceives, such as you having taken a casualty, or the enemy is following up, etc.

Patrolling / Community Outreach: However this is done, depending on the situation and how ‘tactical’ it is, the option of conducting local area patrolling, or at the very least low key visiting of your neighbors, will build information on the local situation and hopefully prevent any hostile forces moving through the area undetected, and surprising you or your neighbors. This will build up a local intelligence picture of your area. To support that now, you need maps and imagery; your local county property boundary mapping site will let you see who owns what in your neighborhood and what the boundaries are.

Communications: How is information coming to you from outside your immediate footprint? What information sources do you have access to? This may require the ability to plug into HAM networks, at the very least to be able to listen. Of course, the availability of media will depend on the situation / collapse as it happens. If you do gather information through these means, then it will led to potential decisions.

I provide the examples above to show how you can better prepare, through training and operational planning, for situations occurring to you and your group. This sets the base level which will place you in a better position to address those decision points that arise.

Experience is something that will help you make decisions on an intuitive basis in response to an arising decision point. Experience gives you an understanding of capability and in effect ‘what right looks like’ in terms of tactical decisions. You may not be a combat veteran but you can embed the right instincts through effective training. Experience will help you with visualization of courses of action and thus the ability to reach a quick decision. Among all the talk about OODA loops is the fact that you are usually having to make decisions against a living and breathing enemy who seeks to outwit you, and thus speed of decision making is important.

leader vietnam

If you seek more, or perfect information, in a bid to conduct best analysis of a developing situation, you may fail to act in a timely manner and thus lose the decision window, thus allowing the enemy to seize the initiative. You must understand that in a crisis situation you will not have perfect information and that seeking to wait for that unicorn may be a huge mistake. The flip side is that if you can avoid it, you don’t want to rush into things in order to allow time for planning, but that should form part of your intuitive decision making process – if you wait, that should follow a decision to do so, not the result of a freeze.

In ‘Contact!’ I provide you with a version of the ‘Combat Estimate” which is similar to the MDMP (Military Decision Making Process). This is designed as a leader / staff planning tool when time is available to consider all the factors and courses of action. If time is short, you need to be more intuitive when considering the situation and the correct decision to make. I do not expect you to get the Combat Estimate out under fire. This is something that you may decide to do as part of a TEWT (Tactical Exercise without Troops), which is similar to actually being forced to write QBO’s (Quick Battle Orders) physically down on paper as part of something like a training platoon attack. This is not because you actually expect to conduct your decision making and implementation in this way on game day, but it is a method of mental training that prepares your mind to consider the factors in a logical way. Thus, with a better tactically trained mind, you will be better equipped to make those intuitive decisions when time is short. This is related to developing an infantryman’s feel or view of the terrain, where you can assess the battlefield and relative location of enemy and friendly troops and it simply becomes a game of angles, cover and the sequencing of fire and movement.

In a situation of imperfect knowledge, or even any knowledge, you may need to be proactive in order to develop the situation. If you know or suspect that there is any enemy out there that is a threat to you, then you may make a decision to seek greater knowledge. This could be in the form of reconnaissance patrolling, or even an advance to contact in order to make contact and thus gather information from that. If your team is well trained in battle procedure, TTP’s and SOP’s then you will be in a better situation to develop the situation based on the first pieces of information that you gather. Because, remember that as you make contact there is an enemy commander reacting on the other side to the information he is gathering, and you seek to gain and retain the initiative. Waiting for perfect information is a mistake. Given that most reports will initially be inaccurate, waiting for better information is a judgement call. If, through a combination of violence of action and a maneuver, you can throw the enemy off balance, then that puts you in a position to develop the situation to your advantage, as you make further decisions to reinforce success, or perhaps to break contact if you further ascertain that you have launched into a far stronger enemy force.

On the Combat Patrol class, as part of the theory at the beginning, we talk about the principles of battle procedure, otherwise known as CAKE:

Concurrent activity
Anticipation at all levels
Knowledge of the grouping system
Efficient drills

If you can master that, along with effective rehearsals and team SOPs, then it will go a long way towards giving you a team that can be utilized by an effective commander. The team becomes an effective tool, but will not be used well unless the commander is able to make timely decisions. Remember, it is often inaction that is the problem, not necessarily going off with an imperfect plan, because the situation can be developed. Better to go off with an imperfect plan that can be changed or finessed, than be inactive waiting for the perfect information unicorn: “Go left, go right, but make a decision!”

In order for the commander to be effective, he must understand when he has reached decision points, and he must be unafraid to make decisions. He must, in fact, relish responsibility, which is one of the fundamentals of the German Auftragstaktik, which evolved into the modern day Mission Command. Here, subordinates are given a mission with a unifying purpose, or reason why, in order for them to understand the higher commander’s intent, and thus be able to take action as the situation changes to develop the situation to what the commander actually wants. Not just blindly following orders. It must also be recognized on the flip side of this that the philosophy does not simply authorize loose cannon, but rather subordinates operating within the intent of the commander and within the mutual support of fires and control / phase lines: otherwise, you go off on your own and find yourself being lit up by your own supporting fires, because you didn’t listen to the coordinating instructions…..

On the modern battlefield, with so many ISR sensors, commanders can be deluged with TOO MUCH information, along with meddling superiors who have a view of the action simply due to modern technology, and are perhaps acting in line with restrictive politically-motivated ROE and also ‘CYA’ ass covering due to career fears of subordinates committing some sort of atrocity, or making the wrong call. Such an atmosphere is professional death for an army. You, as a survivor, will not have access to too much information and will not have to worry about any of that, simply try to keep your people alive. One of the vital facets of mission command is trust at all levels, which means that the commander must trust his subordinates and must trust their call on the ground. A better modus operandi is for remote commanders to simply act to support the call of call-signs on the ground, through providing assets / QRF as and when called for. More of a ‘top cover’ role than meddling with an extremely long screwdriver. Trust the man on the ground. Of course, that level of trust and competence can only be gained by training together in ways that allow it to develop.

At MVT, we are running the Force on Force Team Tactics classes. These are woodland based but we already have one hut site out in the woods under construction, soon to become two, which add an additional dimension to the classes. In the classes you will find yourself fighting against an actual adversary who will be using team tactics against you. This is an excellent training vehicle to develop to ability to make decisions when they need to be made. This applies whether you volunteer to step up to a team leadership position, or if you are simply having to maneuver with your team against the enemy. You will learn whether they were right or wrong!- MVT