I think they have definitely gotten smarter about ROE and it will be on the cartels and their lackeys to be at fault if something starts, but we don't have anything to go on at this point.

What surprises me however is how the growing ceasefire shows more, not less, evidence of cartel and government collusion.

The government people sympathetic to one cartel or another don't have major issues with their people firing up other government people who they know are sympathetic to and working on behalf of a rival cartel, or are order takers trying to do their job within the rules the way Brian Terry was.

Now enter the wild card, a large force of angry gringos who have demonstrated they will resist itching their trigger fingers but really want to mix it up with someone. That means the usual backroom dealmaking after a shootout is not going to work here. The only direction it would go is escalation since there are no concessions that a particular cartel or law enforcement group has to offer which would satisfy the situation peacefully. The militia guys would not care the least to be allowed an extra day or two per month of their guy being at the border checkpoint to let his own people through, or a better wholesale deal on the next few loads of cocaine.

If cops working for cartel A get wind of a shipment owned by cartel B go and have a shootout with the enforcers of cartel B, they all know how their little arrangements work. Cops working for Cartels A, B and C all sneak around each other at the threat briefings, jousting for that next promotion which advantages themselves and their cartel, while their supervisors play them off against each other for better bust numbers. If something gets out of hand between them, a peace is brokered and concessions made among the dealmakers who are rivals, but its not like no limits warfare between them. They all know the score and have a pretty good idea which guys are corrupt on behalf of which cartels.

In that sense, the cops all know they are a team too. The harder it becomes to get stuff across the border, the more bribe money they can squeeze for less work protecting some particular shipment. Instead of guiding his coworkers away from one cartel's shipment and toward another for say $500 per, a few times a month, he then tells them he can only create one time window per month to get by the militia patrols, and that will cost the cartel $2500 per shipment on the designated route. Word gets around that the presence of militias means the price of letting a shipment through has gone up, they all want in on the action, nobody wants to be the punk of the litter, so they raise the bribe prices to the cartels.

That whole gravy train gets problematic if the cartels on their own decide to try and eradicate a militia patrol in a terror operation, and then thousands more militia show up to game on with the cartels, and you have these ex-CIA black ops guys who know how to play big boys rules picking people up badge or not and torture information out of them as to which cartels they have been in contact with and who ordered the wipeout of a patrol.

Then that snowballs into cross border raids, and direct conflict with Mex military who either shielded the hit team, or probably provided personnel for extra cash.

Advisers to the cartels are not stupid and neither is the cartel leadership, or the current leadership. Notice that they apparently are not yet firing up any of the militia patrols to declare war on them, and someone who understands what will seriously upset the apple cart if they do has been explaining it to them, and probably threatening them with heavy discipline if they do. Interesting, because that shows government enforced levels of discipline on the part of the cartels.