...Defaults stress erodes the margin of flexibility for Maduro and exposes a worse phase of cashflow woes for the bills the country owes in dollars.

Bond traders are waiting for a signal from the Emerging Markets Trade Association over the next few days, or weeks. They have been recommending investors trade the bond flat, and not accelerate.

The mounting legal risks of a hard default would represent a potential source of pressure with foreign investors potentially interrupting PDVSA operations overseas and thus compromise the cashflow necessary to fund the government. Courts could seize assets, for instance, in a hard default situation. As president, Maduro is surely aware of this.

That cashflow stress represents the single source of pressure on Maduro.

The military rank and file have backed Maduro so far, but as money wears thin, so is their patience. Many of them still feel an allegiance to the Socialists United Party, created by party figurehead and local legend Hugo Chavez.

"We are on high alert," says Morden.

Cashflow stress is the key catalyst for Venezuelan regime change over the next 12 months. Maybe even sooner....