...The Chinese government is widely seen as having finally gotten the crisis under control. Last week, Beijing reported that the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 had dropped to zero. (On Sunday, Beijing reported 46 new cases, 45 of them reportedly imported from overseas.) Quarantine measures are easing, even in Wuhan. Beijing is leading an international fight to contain and treat the illness, donating medical supplies and diagnostic tests to countries around the world. At home, it is implementing sweeping policies to aid economic recovery. And the authorities have formally exonerated Dr. Li.

Yet Beijing's well-documented record of coverups, censorship, and intimidation of critics should give us pause about accepting its narrative. It's now well-established that Chinese authorities covered up the spread of the disease in its early stages. Beijing initially refused to allow U.S. disease experts to visit Wuhan. As the virus gathered pace, it censored even tangential discussion of the crisis online. It detained hundreds of citizens, including medical workers, for "spreading rumors" or criticizing the government's response.

So are Beijing's current data accurate? Has China really stemmed the tide? "It would be really hard to speculate on this question because nobody really has any evidence whether the Chinese government is being honest or not," says Minxin Pei, a China specialist at Claremont McKenna College....