Look at our own civil war. Both John Brown, who conducted the raid on Harper's Ferry, and Lysander Spooner who supported him, were adamantly opposed to a civil war. Both wanted a slave revolt or, better yet, for slave owners to be so terrified of a slave revolt that they themselves would free them. Yet their actions were simply one in a long string that inevitably led to the war.
Brown and Spooner were both wealthy entrepreneurs who used their uncommon resources to influence the direction of the nation. One might argue that they were therefore minor oligarchs. In modern civil wars, we observe foreign powers and oligarchs organizing and inciting civil wars, and it appears unlikely any of those civil wars would have occurred without that action. I’m unsure that “minor oligarchs” could drive a superpower like modern America to civil war, but it’s certainly possible, as would be one or more foreign powers organizing the same. It would undoubtedly require extensive resources, effort, and risk, but absolutely possible.
What disparate incidents could lead to a modern civil war? Well, a year ago, the left was so terrified by a bunch of trespassers that they're still going bonkers over these "insurrectionists" and "traitors." Clearly, a civil war or a societal collapse doesn't seem so unlikely to them. They were so afraid of some nutso with horns that they threatened him with twenty years in prison. So yes, the Left is afraid. And you saw what they did to Kyle Rittenhouse.
In recent years, both the left and the right commonly perceived a civil war as reasonably possible. I don’t think very many had more than a vague recognition of mutual hostility and national dysfunction for that perception, and I’m not sure that I place much value in the perceptions of the mass man anyway.
Right now, most of the "battles" are Antifa and the Proud Boys trading insults and trying to goad each other into throwing the first punch, pretty much schoolyard stuff. What could incite a real war or insurrection? Or a societal collapse? I don't know, my ESP was never that good. But history tells us it's certainly possible. And it appears to be getting more likely every day.
You’re absolutely right. A civil war is possible, and a high intensity conflict of that nature could begin a year from now or even a day from now via a catalyst which both of us are oblivious of. I’m just saying, if an American civil war does kick off of the near-term or mid-term, it must certainly be due to causes I’m unaware of, because I’m not seeing any strong indicators for one at this time.
