The CIA organized the Soviet breakup, and that occurred after many years of extensive planning, preparation and investment. I could imagine, for instance, Russia one day organizing the secession of Alaska, China organizing the secession of Cascadia (California, Oregon and Washington). Either accomplishment would bare tremendous benefit to them, and would be a severe blow to the United States. As far as a natural breakup, one would expect that to involve a split along political lines, the left and right separating from one another. I find that implausible, because the left and right are both distributed throughout the nation and neither Left America nor Right America would be continuous. Both groups are angry toward and desire to dominate the other anyway, so I would sooner expect a civil war in which each group fights for dominance until one group conquers all of the territory of the other. As the left are already imminently victorious in their revolution and on the path to absolute political, economic and social control of the nation, this would have to be a conflict initiated by the neutered right, which appears highly unlikely. Without societal collapse, I can’t imagine a Balkanization of America in which many nations are carved out of it, united for reasons beyond the left-right paradigm.


Historically, any nation which has seen the debt-to-GDP ratio which America holds never recovered and always failed. However, America utilizes fiat currency, which is relatively new, and the warning signs and reasons for such an economy to collapse isn’t yet established. It’s therefore entirely possible that fiat America is immune to such things, especially for as long as it remains the world’s dominant Great Power.


If PRC were ever to, for whatever reason, cease trade with nations highly dependent on its goods, like America, it would certainly be devastating, and could absolutely result in societal collapse. To give an adversary the power to potentially destroy you simply by ceasing trade with you is rather unwise.