Putin’s theory of how Russia would pacify a conquered Ukraine appears to have been that Ukrainians would … just sort of pacify themselves. Russia can’t mount an effective long-term occupation of a country this large but it wouldn’t need to, provided that Ukrainians placidly accepted their fate and welcomed their integration into Russia.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Russia’s entire war strategy rested on that dubious assumption bearing out. If Ukrainians resisted and forced Russia to commit to a lengthy pacification effort, there’s no telling how long Moscow would be able to sustain it. Especially with western sanctions taking a wrecking ball to their economy.

To put it another way, Putin really, truly seems to have believed his own bullsh*t about Ukrainians greeting Russian troops as liberators. In a worst-case scenario, he may have imagined that Ukrainians would resist initially but then would roll over once their cities were occupied and all hope of expelling the invader was lost.

That theory was tested today in the southern city of Kherson, the site of Russia’s most significant victory to date. The Russian military seized it days ago and moved in to occupy it. If Putin is right that Ukrainians will reconcile themselves to their fate once they fall under Russian control, the first evidence should emerge in Kherson.

His theory looked shaky yesterday. Today it looks shakier....