Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine will be a ‘total failure’ comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, a report by a so-called FSB analyst has claimed.

The over 2,000-word report added that Russia’s forces have ‘no options to victory, only defeat’ as they continue to meet strong Ukrainian resistance, that experts believe has surprised many in Moscow including the president himself.

It said that the number of Russians killed in Ukraine could already be over 10,000 – a figure similar to that reported by Kyiv officials – and far more than the 498 dead soldiers officially acknowledged by the Kremlin.

The whistleblower also claimed the FSB – Russia’s successor to the Soviet Union’s feared KGB – was being blamed for the failure of Moscow’s forces to make significant progress into Ukraine, despite being given no advanced warning of the invasion.

The report also said Russia’s government has lost contact with a number of its divisions that have been sent into Ukraine, meaning they had no accurate death toll.

Russian human rights activist and operator of the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net Vladimir Osechkin published the report on Facebook last week.

Christo Grozev, an expert on Russia’s security services who works for investigative journalism group Bellingcat, said he has shown the report two current or former FSB contacts who told him they had ‘no doubt it was written by a colleague’.

Writing on Twitter, Grozev said that while his contacts did not necessarily agree with all the assertions in the report, they were confident in its origin.

Giving hope to the people of Ukraine in the face of devastating attacks by Russian forces, the report said that Putin’s chances of victory in Ukraine are non-existent.

‘By and large, [Russia] has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything,’ the report said.

It compared Russia’s mistakes to those made by Nazi Germany at the end of the Second World War, and said that Moscow’s ‘starting position’ was akin to ‘Germany in 1943-44’ – when Hitler’s chances of victory were collapsing on two fronts.

The whistleblower claimed that FSB officers have been ordered to assess the effects Western sanctions are having on Russia. The ruble has all-but collapsed and Russia has become an international pariah.

But despite the very real economic devastation, the report said officers were told that it was a hypothetical box-ticking exercise.

‘You have to write the analysis in a way that makes Russia the victor… otherwise you get questioned for not doing good work,’ the report says. ‘Suddenly it happens and everything comes down to your completely groundless analysis.’

The letter, published in the early hours of Friday morning, also says that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov – who is usually a staunch ally of Putin’s – is furious with Moscow after his ‘kill squad’ sent to assassinate Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky was instead destroyed by Ukrainian troops.

Zelensky is said to be Putin’s No. 1 target, but even if the Russian president was successful in killing his Ukrainian counterpart, the report says that Moscow would still be unable to occupy Ukraine.

‘Even with minimum resistance from the Ukrainians we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply and logistics workers,’ the author claims.

The author also addressed the likelihood of Putin launching a nuclear strike against the West, saying it was a possibility.

They also wrote that Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, was trying to find evidence that Ukraine had built nuclear weapons to justify a pre-emptive strike.

‘Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything – this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others,’ they wrote.

‘At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine – Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the earth to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there.’

But despite saying there was a possibility of such a horrific event, the author added: ‘From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.

‘Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there – there is no ‘one-man red button,’ they wrote.

‘Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning [in Russia’s nuclear deterrent],’ they added, continuing: ‘Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him.

‘For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn’t matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones.’

Amid concerns that Russia could put some of Ukraine’s cities such as the capital of Kyiv under siege, the author of the report said this was unlikely.

‘Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function,’ they wrote.

‘Humanitarian convoys from Europe [will be there in a] matter of time,’ they added.