1. Kherson: “The entire Russian line has crumbled.”

2. “Kherson is the only major city Russia has captured in seven months.”

3. “This is the greatest concentration of Russian forces, and it is the best troops Russia has.”

4. They also have the best equipment. If the Ukrainians capture it, it would be even better than Kharkiv.

5. “I still believe this is Russia’s war to lose. The first year of all Russia’s wars look a lot like this. Bad training, bad coordination, poorly maintained equipment.” Modern warfare seldom gives you an entire year to sort your problems out.

6. “Watch Kherson closely. This could be where the war is decided.”

Russia seems to be retreating everywhere save the central front in Donetsk, where they seem to be eking out tiny, meaningless gains of a square kilometer or two a day. That’s not a recipe for success.