Ukraine's position is not as secure as most people think. The campaign in the Donbas region is usually portrayed as static, with Ukraine forces taking a terrible toll on Russian convict soldiers. In fact, the opposite is true: Russia enjoys a nine to one advantage in artillery tubes, and they're quite content to simply hang back and pound Ukraine defenses. The campaign in the Donbas region is starting to look more like Verdun than anything else.
Far too long to post here, so This is just a short summary. Read the whole thing, and draw your own conclusions:
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...Ukraine’s military is extremely degraded, having taking exorbitant losses in both men and heavy weaponry. I believe Ukrainian KIA are approaching 150,000 at this point, and it is clear that their inventories of both artillery tubes, shells, and armored vehicles are largely exhausted.
I expect the Bakhmut-Siversk defensive line to be cleared before April, after which Russia will push towards the final (and weakest) defensive belt around Slavyansk. Meanwhile, Russia has significant combat power in reserve, which can be used to reopen the northern front on the west bank of the Oskil and restart offensive operations in Zaporozhia, placing Ukrainian logistics in critical danger.
This war will be fought to its conclusion on the battlefield and end in a favorable decision for Russia....
